The Red Wings’ late round draft picks haven’t turned into NHLers, but that's not out of the ordinary

There’s a reason that some players get picked outside the first round of the NHL Draft. Some players selected here have major technical flaws in their games, while others lack particular standout talent. Some players are under-scouted, while some are over-analyzed. And even if teams drafting them don’t take the development of any draft pick likely, players selected later in the draft aren’t exactly expected to be NHLers without a doubt.

Yet there are plenty of diamonds in the rough if teams can find them. Just take a look at the Red Wings’ 2000s dominance, led by sixth-round pick Pavel Datsyuk and seventh-round pick Henrik Zetterberg. Back when Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman was building Tampa Bay into one of the deepest organizations of the salary cap era, he found high-impact third rounders in Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli, as well as seventh-rounder Ondrej Palat.

Looking at the Red Wings’ roster today, it’s fair to wonder where those late round steals are at. With so many high draft picks in recent years due to the rebuild, the top of the prospect pool is perceived to be stronger than anywhere else in the NHL. But looking deeper, specifically at those late round picks, Detroit has yet to see the payoff of its drafting. In the past five drafts — otherwise categorized as the ones under Yzerman — the Red Wings have made 32 selections from the third round or later. Only 2019 sixth rounder Elmer Soderblom has played an NHL game.

Now, there’s an obvious reason why some players have yet to crack the NHL. Some of them just haven’t had enough time to develop. Players take time to progress through juniors and the minor leagues before they’re ready to play at the NHL level. From the past two NHL drafts, for example, just one player selected in the third round or later has played an NHL game. That player — Arizona sixth rounder Maksymilian Szuber — skated in just one single game. Even if it’s easy to scroll through draft lists and see all the late round gems that teams could have had, it also takes time for them to arrive.

How long is that going to take? Every prospect’s timeline varies by age, position and the team they’re playing for, but it seems like a ballpark estimate of four to five years applies to most players who are going to make it. In those drafts — 2019 and 2020 — 35 and 26 players from the third round or later have played an NHL game. Put that in context — if 160 players are drafted in the final five rounds of the draft, then that means about 16% to 20% will make it to the NHL.

Now, that’s just players who’ve cracked the lineup, not necessarily ones who make a noticeable impact game in and game out. If we move the goalpost to players who’ve suited up for 100 games, the numbers dwindle. They dwindle so far, that to get an accurate visualization, we have to move the proverbial goalposts. From the past 10 drafts, just 101 players selected in the third round or later have reached that milestone. That’s a mere 6.5% out of 1,550 picks in total over a decade. The odds of the Red Wings getting a really good player out of these late picks just isn't on their side. 

In terms of who might beat those odds, there’s reason for Detroit to be optimistic for the future when its late round draft picks have had time to mature. 2021 already seems like it has strong odds of landing some good players, as third round pick Carter Mazur is at a level where he could vie for a roster spot at training camp this fall. 2021 fifth rounder Liam Dower-Nilsson just finished his best pro season with 27 points in 52 games for Bjorkloven IF in Sweden’s second-tier league. 2021 fourth rounder Red Savage had a career year with 27 points for Michigan State, a strong season for someone whose strongest abilities exist in the defensive zone.

It might also be worth keeping faith in Yzerman given his track record of success at the draft. Of that 101 late picks who’ve played more than 100 games, Yzerman drafted five — some pretty good players in Cirelli, Point, Mathieu Joseph, Nick Perbix and Ross Colton. Meanwhile, Detroit’s old management under Ken Holland drafted one in that time span: Christoffer Ehn.

That stat is part of the reason why it seems as though the Red Wings have a problem with their late round draft picks. They haven’t gotten those out of the late Holland-era drafts, led by former director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright. These drafts are best remembered as a turbulent bunch, with a great first round pick in 2014’s Dylan Larkin, but also big misses in picking Evgeny Svechnikov out of an era-defining 2015 class and Filip Zadina over probable Norris Trophy-winner Quinn Hughes in 2018. Whether you pin these results to poor drafting, poor development or just plain old bad luck, these first round picks were still a whole lot more successful than the ones coming in the third round or later. It will take more time to pass similar judgment on the picks under director of amateur scouting and assistant GM Kris Draper.

For now, it’s far too early to judge Yzerman’s late picks with Detroit. Certainly his track record in Tampa Bay should buy him some leniency from outside observers. As much as there hasn’t been a revelation in the late rounds, there’s also more time for these picks to pay off.

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