The Edmonton Oilers' wins over the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche felt good, and for a couple of nights this week, the Oilers looked like the team everyone thought they would be this season. Hold onto that feeling, because Thursday in Dallas with a 7-2 loss to the Stars was a reminder of where they actually stand.
Dallas is 41-14-10, one of the best teams in the league, and the Oilers went in there on the first night of a back-to-back and got run out of the building.
It's not a mark on their whole season, but it confirmed what's been clear for a while now: this Edmonton team is not going on another legendary run, and June hockey is not in the cards.
"We're on the brink of not making the playoffs," said Kris Knoblauch before the road trip started.
The Oilers are sitting third in the Pacific at 32-26-8, and while the Oilers were getting owned by the Stars, the San Jose Sharks were topping the Seattle Kraken in the standings. They now sit 31-26-6 with three games in hand over the Oilers.
If San Jose keeps winning, Edmonton is looking at a Wild Card spot. Wild Card 2, potentially, which in the Western Conference right now would probably mean drawing Colorado in the first round. Good luck with that.
Tonight they play the St. Louis Blues in St. Louis, and the Blues are also playing on the back end of a back-to-back. They beat Carolina 3-1 last night, which, whatever you want to say about where St. Louis sits in the standings, is an impressive result. Carolina is one of the best teams in the East. The Blues aren't going to roll over.
Edmonton needs a win tonight, and they need to play the kind of hockey that got them through Vegas and Colorado earlier this week. More structure, fewer odd-man rushes against, keeping the first shot on goal out of the net.
The realistic version of this Oilers season ends in the first round of the playoffs, maybe a spirited series, a game or two that reminds you why you watch, but a first-round exit.
After all the defensive meltdown through February and into March, the 56 goals surrendered in 12 games, the anxiety, just making it in would count as something.
What comes this summer matters because some real decisions have to be made. Whether that means a new GM, trades, a different approach to the cap, something has to change.
Knoblauch is probably more complicated of a question than people are making it. There's an argument that this team's problems run deeper than coaching, that the personnel decisions and the structure around him matter more than whether he's behind the bench. But someone is going to be accountable for how this season fell apart, and head coaches tend to pay that price first.
But that's tomorrow's problem. The only thing that matters is the Blues tonight, then Nashville, then the Sharks, then Florida. Game by game, point by point, just get across the playoff line and give the fanbase something to show up for in April. A first-round series, even a short one, is better than watching the standings one more time and realizing you're done too soon.
The Oilers have enough talent and experience to win the games they need down the stretch. Get in, compete, and then spend the summer figuring out why a team this talented keeps finding new ways to make things harder than they need to be.
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