The Montreal Canadiens will face the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 3 of their series tonight, and all eyes will be on Martin St-Louis' lineup selection.
The countdown has started in less than eight hours, and the Bell Centre sound system will blast Fix You as the Montreal Canadiens players take to the ice for Game 3 of their first-round battle with the Tampa Bay Lightning. The young Habs came very close to coming back home with a 2-0 lead in the series, but when Lane Hutson hit the post late in Game 2, the team was deflated. So much so that in overtime, the Sainte-Flanelle couldn’t even muster a single shot while the Bolts peppered Jakub Dobes’ net.
Not shooting in overtime can only lead to one result: a loss. Even if Kirby Dach didn’t ice the puck and stopped playing for a fraction of a second in the ensuing defensive zone faceoff, the Canadiens would still have lost eventually. It couldn’t have been any other way without attacking. The two teams are now back to square one, tied 1-1, 70% of the time, the team that wins Game 3 of a best-of-seven duel wins the series. Will the young Canadiens be able to put the deflating end of Game 2 behind them and move on?
Historically, in the third game of a series, the Bolts have a strong record: 23-16 overall for a .590 winning percentage. On the road, they are even better with a 14-7 record for a .667 winning percentage. When a series is tied at one all, they have 13 series wins and only 7 series losses for a .650 winning percentage.
Meanwhile, the Habs have a 74-51 record in the third game of a series for a .592 winning percentage. At home, they are 24-21 in third games for a .533 winning percentage. When a series is tied at 1-1, they have 24 series wins and 19 series losses, for a .558 winning percentage, but they are 12-9 when the series started on the road for a .571 winning percentage.
Those numbers only reflect what has happened in the past, though. This new iteration of the Canadiens is keen to write its own story, and it starts by bouncing back from a heartbreaking defeat. Since that loss in Tampa, there have been no hints of what changes, if any, Martin St-Louis is likely to make to his lineup. He’s the kind of coach who doesn’t change a winning formula, but after that kind of loss? All bets are off.
Could it have made a difference to have Brendan Gallagher’s experience on the bench last time? There’s a reason why the battle-tested warrior wears a letter on his jersey. He’s a great leader, and he’s seen it all. The alternate captain has played 76 playoff games and has racked up 33 points with just 25 penalty minutes. He plays an intense game, but he knows not to cross the line when it matters the most. 15 of his 76 playoff games have been played against Tampa, and he gathered nine points against them, including five goals.
Granted, he doesn’t have the same speed and stamina he once had, but he still has the same dedication to the sweater. He still battles hard in front of the net and can create havoc or much-needed screens in front of goalies. On Tuesday, Dach spent a total of 10:53 on the ice, and only 9:16 in regulation, on a fourth line. After a lot of rest, Gallagher can give you that kind of ice time. Corey Perry, who’s older than Gallagher, had 10:49 of ice time, 8:40 in regulation. Gallagher has often been the spark the Canadiens needed in the past, and he could still play that role if he gets the opportunity.
Of course, Joe Veleno could also be an option; he’s younger, can play a physical game, is heavy on the forecheck, and brings combativeness, but he has never played a single playoff game. Chances are the Montreal-born center is chomping at the bit for an opportunity to play not only a playoff game, but one in Montreal, in front of friends and family.
Dach is not the only player who could find himself on the outside looking in. Alexandre Texier, who has been skating on the second line, has failed to impress. He has been kept off the scoresheet in the first two games. The Frenchman normally plays better in Montreal than he does on the road, however.
Whatever St-Louis decides to do with his lineup, don’t expect to hear about it before tonight’s warmup. He’s been keeping his cards close to his chest, and he has no intention of showing his hand before the puck drops.
The game is set for 7:00 PM, and if you are going, make sure to be in your seat well in advance. The Canadiens have a knack for spectacles when it comes to opening a playoff series at home, and yesterday they asked the media to leave the arena by 3:00 PM because they didn’t want any leaks about what they are preparing. It should be a perfect starter to what promises to be a sumptuous multicourse meal for Montrealers hungry for playoff hockey. Chris Rooney and Peter MacDougall will officiate, while Devin Berg and James Tobias will serve as linemen. You can catch the game on CBC, TVAS, SN, TNT, truTV, HBO MAX, and The Spot.
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