How will Roy coach with a lead?
How will Roy coach with a lead?
The New York Islanders find themselves outside the playoff picture at the 2024 All-Star break for one reason, and one reason alone: Blown leads.
Despite having to chase games more often than not as of late, their inability to lock down leads became a trend.
The Islanders have entered the third period with a lead 21 times in 49 games, blowing the lead six times (15-1-5) for a point percentage of .833.
That record doesn't include games where the Islanders took the lead in the third period and saw that evaporate.
Holding onto leads was a success in the Islanders' first year without Barry Trotz, who went 98-7-10 when entering the third period with a lead (.896 point percentage) over his four years on the island.
Even in a more offensive-minded system under Lane Lambert, the Islanders entered the third period with a lead and lost a total of six times (27-3-3) with a point percentage of .863.
But in the playoffs, Lambert used the Trotz-shell method in Game Six against the Carolina Hurricanes, up 1-0 entering the third period, which backfired.
They allowed the Hurricanes to dominate the period, tie the game up, and ultimately win it in overtime to send New York packing.
The failure in that one game may not have been the reason for the blown leads this season, but no real adjustments were made as the Islanders sat back too often, trying to hold onto the lead rather than go for the kill.
So the question became, how will the Islanders play under Patrick Roy when entering the third period with a lead?
Well, we don't know just yet.
Through four games under Roy, the Islanders have had a lead just once, coming in the Hockey Hall of Famer's first game behind the Blue and Orange bench when defenseman Alexander Romanov scored off the rush at 2:52 of the first period against Dallas.
The Islanders saw that slim lead evaporate in the second, entering the third period down 2-1 before coming back and winning in overtime courtesy of a Hudson Fasching bounce in the third and a Bo Horvat breakaway backhand finish in the extra frame.
Against the Vegas Golden Knights, the Islanders went down 1-0 in the first, tied the game in the second, but entered the third period down 3-1 before the comeback effort fell short, falling 3-2.
Up in Montreal for Roy's return, the Islanders went down 3-0 early before working all the way back in the third period just to allow the go-ahead goal with 2:12 to play in the third in a disappointing sequence of events.
And against the Florida Panthers in the final game before the bye week and All-Star break, the Islanders entered the third period tied 1-1 before coming back yet again, with Kyle Palmieri tying the game at 202 with 1:29 to play in the third.
Unlike in Roy's first game, the Islanders didn't come up with the overtime victory as a failed change proved costly in a 3-2 defeat.
Four games, just one lead and none entering the third period.
But something tells us, based on Roy's press conferences and aggressive nature, that sitting back isn't going to be the route he goes.
He's all about that "second quick," that extra aggressiveness in the defensive zone, and also wanting his defenseman to break the habit of just sitting back in front of the goal.
"I think we could be even better if our defensemen...our defensemen are a little afraid to leave the net front. I mean, these are the habits that they have had for a long time," Roy said after the win against Dallas. "Adam [Pelech] was starting to go, leaving the net front and going. It's just normal. It's a trust thing. We need to trust each other, and the defense needs to trust the forwards, and the forwards need to trust the defensemen, so we're gonna be more comfortable."
That trust factor might be something that hurt the Islanders early this season in the third period, as too many times, other players had to cover for others' mistakes, leading to absolute chaos and usually pucks in their net.
But what's also failed the Islanders is when they had the ability to get pucks out, they turned the puck over, which is something Roy is trying to fix as quickly as possible.
He's preached puck possession and has put forth a structure he believes will help with breaking out.
"'Do you watch football?' Roy asked another member of the media. "You're leading by 14 points in the fourth quarter. You're halfway into the fourth quarter. What does the team do? They run the ball. So how can we run the ball in hockey?"
The answer is holding onto the puck.
"Offensively, if we hang on to the puck, that's what I call learning how to win hockey games. We learn to hold onto the puck, make plays, kill the clock, and that's what you do."
In their 3-2 loss to Vegas, a game in which the Islanders dominated but came up short, Roy had this to say postgame, which gives us a hint about his mindset.
"Our defensive-zone coverage was much better. We were quick on them, and we found ways to be second quick and get that puck back. We didn't spend too much time in our own zone," Roy said. "I'm not sure if I saw correctly, but I saw something saying that we were less than a minute in our zone in puck possession, and I'll see if it was exactly that, but I mean, that's a good sign for us."
It seems like common sense that with a lead, limiting the amount of time in one's own zone would be an obvious mindset, but again, the Islanders going up in a shell for so many years was the complete opposite of that.
Under Trotz and Lambert, the Islanders didn't mind the opposition being in their own zone because there was a belief that their structure, combined with their elite goaltending, could fend off the number of shots that came their way.
That clearly failed this season so far, playing a part in Lambert's firing.
Another reason to think that the Islanders could do better with leads in the third period under Roy is because the new head coach has already handled his personnel in a much more proactive way.
Yes, the Islanders have had to play catch-up in the third in all four games, which impacts decisions, but Roy has had no issue limiting the minutes of his bottom-six players to ensure that his top-six talent gets as many opportunities as possible to produce offensively.
One thing that killed the Islanders under Lambert was the continued use of the fourth line -- and that's not to say that they struggled in their roles -- but an over-reliance on a line that was no longer their dominant self led to losses, no question about it.
It seems that Roy is learning which players he can trust rather quickly, so if the Islanders do have a lead, don't be shocked to see the same faces on the ice every other shift.
With the Islanders five points out of a wild-card spot and four points back of third place in the Metropolitan Divison, winning games after the All-Star break needs to happen consistently.
Unless the Islander's offense explodes, it's likely New York will be playing close games, as we saw in Roy's first week, and third-period leads will need to be held onto if they want to give themselves any kind of chance at skating in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The guess is that Roy will be much more aggressive with a lead than Trotz or Lambert was, but time will tell if that is the plan and if the Islanders on the ice can execute that plan.
You can watch Rosner talk Islanders hockey on Hockey Night in New York with co-host Sean Cuthbert live Sunday nights at 8 PM ET during the season on Twitch, YouTube, Twitter & Facebook.