With Ottawa’s captain eligible to sign an extension next summer, we can't help wondering what that contract might look like.
Brady Tkachuk is eligible to sign an extension with the Senators next summer, and it's fair to wonder, even this far out, what that extension might look like.
The Senators' captain is one of the league's unicorns, a throwback power forward who can completely change the tone of a game or locker room. Players like him simply don't become available very often, and at this point, I'm not telling you anything you don't already know.
But around this time next year, GM Steve Staios will begin to crunch the numbers and talk the talk, and he'll probably do so knowing full well that Tkachuk holds all the cards.
Why Does Tkachuk Hold All the Cards?
For one, Staios will be asking Tkachuk to forego unrestricted free agency in 2028, which is no small sacrifice. It's called the Frenzy for a reason.
If Tkachuk ever actually hit the open market, teams would come after his agent like stock traders lunging at Winthorpe and Valentine at the end of Trading Places, frantically trying to buy orange juice futures.
For those who don't appreciate orange juice futures or 43-year-old movies, the point is simple: the bidding would be bananas, and Tkachuk would cash in like Louis and Billy Ray, because elite players with his combo of skill, leadership, size, edge, and physicality rarely become available.
So the Senators will need to pay a premium if they want him to forego an incredible opportunity.
What does that premium look like?
The term part is hard to predict. With the salary cap expected to rise dramatically over the next few years, many players are hesitant to lock themselves into maximum-length deals. The cap jumps from $95.5 million to $104 million next season, and projections have it climbing to $113.5 million the year after that.
Any player signing a seven-year extension today risks leaving serious money on the table if the cap keeps exploding upward. That's why many agents now prefer shorter three-to-five-year contracts that allow players to re-enter the market sooner.
But no one knows when age or injury might slow them down, so not everyone favours the shorter deal. Within the past year, we've seen eight-year extensions (the former maximum) signed by players like Mitch Marner and Kirill Kaprizov.
If going long-term matters to Tkachuk, Ottawa has an important advantage. They can offer seven years, the new maximum for extensions. Any other team could only offer six.
So what about his salary?
Marner landed a $12 million AAV deal in Toronto's sign-and-trade on June 30 last summer. Kaprizov reportedly came in around $17 million AAV on his extension last September.
Tkachuk signed his current deal five years ago, carrying an $8.205 million cap hit, but the market and his stock have changed dramatically since then. You'd like to think that a $2 million raise would be agreeable, but as weird as it sounds to describe $10 million salary as the ultimate hometown discount, that's exactly what it would be.
Armed with everything we outlined earlier, his agent will need to be in the ballpark of $11-12 million and at that number, I'd like to think the Senators would still be in the game and could get something done.
That said, given all the leverage he holds, combined with his uniqueness and impact as a player and leader, seeing an even bigger number slapped on the table wouldn't be a major shock.
If the number gets to 13 or beyond and doesn't move off that, the Senators and their fans might have to start thinking about something they don't want to think about.
Even for the beloved captain, leader, and the face of the franchise, an NHL unicorn, a player you're asking to skip the open auction of unrestricted free agency, how much is too much?
In other words, when does the juice stop being worth the squeeze?
By Steve Warne
The Hockey News
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