The situation may look bleak for the Pittsburgh Penguins, as they trail their best-of-seven series to the Philadelphia Flyers, 2-0 - but there is one thing that could, potentially, make all the difference for them the rest of the way.
As the Pittsburgh Penguins head to Philadelphia to take on the Flyers in Games 3 and 4 this week, they are going into it down 2-0 in their first-round, best-of-seven series and are about to enter a building that doesn't like them very much.
In Games 1 and 2, there was a whole lot not going right for the Penguins. They have just two goals in two games - both in Game 1 - and have not quite been able to crack the Flyers' defensive strategy. Even when the Penguins were able to break through their neutral zone trap, they had a hard time generating in the offensive zone and using the middle of the ice, as Philadelphia clogged up nearly every passing and shooting lane and kept Pittsburgh to the perimeter.
In a lot of ways, the Flyers have simply been able to get to their game, and the Penguins haven't. Things might seem bleak for Pittsburgh, even if they've been able to find ways to respond to adversity all season long.
But the good news is that there may be one simple fix to a lot of the in-game matchup issues that are plaguing them.
In Game 3, the Penguins need to make sure they get on the board first.
First thing's first: Aside from their eight-game losing streak in December, the Penguins have been very good when they've scored the first goal in games, as they went 31-7-9 in those situations during the regular season. Their quick-strike offense often also lends to them piling on, and that's one of the primary reasons they were the league's third-highest scoring team this season.
But, logistically, in this series, it's even more important.
Philadelphia - similar to other teams like the Carolina Hurricanes, Ottawa Senators, Minnesota Wild, and Boston Bruins (to a degree) - deploys a neutral zone trap and stacks their blue line, making it difficult for the Penguins to generate offense off the rush or in transition. It forces them to play a dump-and-chase style, which is not how they've found a lot of success offensively this season.
But here's the catch: The Flyers have been able to play that way almost exclusively because they establish the first lead. They deploy it with no score as well, and, essentially, wait to pounce on mistakes by the Penguins and take it the other way.
However, if the script is flipped - and the Penguins manage to net the first goal - the Flyers cannot simply play prevent defense and will be forced to play out-of-structure a bit. They, too, have struggled to generate much offensively, as they had only six high-danger chances in Game 1 to the Penguins' 5 and just two in Game 2 to the Penguins' nine, according to data from Natural Stat Trick - most of which were odd-man breaks or breakaways.
So, if they're behind early or behind first, it would force them to cheat for offense, even if just a little bit. They wouldn't have the luxury of sitting back and waiting for the Penguins to make a mistake in transition, and it should, in turn, create a bit more open ice in the neutral zone and set up for the Penguins to have stronger zone entries.
Take their season series against Carolina, for instance, since the Canes execute a very similar style to perfection: The only game the Penguins won this season against the Hurricanes was a 5-1 victory on Dec. 30, and they scored the game's first goal less than four minutes into regulation. They scored the next four, and Carolina tagged one on at the very end.
In the other three matchups, all of which took place in March? Carolina scored first in all three games, allowing them to play prevent defense and clog up the neutral zone to counter the Penguins' attack.
The Penguins scored first in all four games against the Flyers this season and went 2-0-2, with the two losses being in the shootout. They outscored Philadelphia 16 to 8 in those games, and although their season series was mostly played before the Flyers made a stretch run and played with more structure, it speaks to how much they were the team dictating terms and dictating play.
Of course, scoring first isn't a fix-all. The Penguins will still need to play much more responsibly than they did in the first two games and cannot bleed odd-man rushes against. That will require them to keep on the attack yet stay within their structure and game plan, which isn't an easy thing to do against a team like this. They also can't react emotionally and get rattled, which is clearly the plan of attack against the Penguins' veterans.
But that first goal sets the terms of the game pretty handily. If the Penguins can play from the jump on their terms, Games 3 and 4 in Philadelphia should look a whole lot different than the first two in Pittsburgh.
Despite emotions running high for both the fanbase and the team, to an extent - and, again, despite how bleak everything appears to be after two losses to start the Penguins' first playoff series since 2022 - this thing is far from over. They need to be the ones making the Flyers chase the game, not the other way around.
They're certainly capable. Now, it just comes down to the execution of their gameplan and whether or not they can finally establish their game - and establish it early on.
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