Penguins' 14th Overall Pick Could Fetch Great Return
Looking at the last two drafts could give the Pittsburgh Penguins an idea of what their 14th pick is worth.
It's the biggest debate surrounding the Pittsburgh Penguins entering the 2023 NHL Draft: do they keep or trade the 14th overall pick? Staring down the first lottery pick for the organization in over a decade, the Penguins are caught between attempting one more Stanley Cup run and a drought of young talent. Calls for both trading and keeping the pick are consistent, but if the Penguins do relinquish their pick, they have to do it for the right return. But what is the pick actually worth and what could the Penguins expect in return?
Luckily for that question, there are some recent league transactions that set a precedent for the Penguins to follow or take caution from. First off, the Pens can look to their cross-state neighbors and rivals, the Philadelphia Flyers, for some guidance.
The Flyers parted with their 14th overall pick and depth defenseman Robert Hagg on draft night in 2021 when they acquired defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen from the Buffalo Sabres. The trade was viewed as a move for a number one right-handed defenseman for the defensively needy Flyers, and the draft pick included was the major piece going to Buffalo in return.
The results have been much less than expected in Philadelphia despite the continued opportunity. The Flyers extended him to a five year contract after acquiring him, but he has put up only 36 points total over two seasons in the City of Brotherly Love. This trade can easily be deemed a win for Buffalo, simply by getting a great return for an already declining Ristolainen, despite being only 28 years old now.
Still, at the time of the trade the Flyers believed they were acquiring a top pairing defender and Buffalo was parting ways with a 40 point, top four defender on for the 14th pick and an average level replacement. It set a precedent that the market for a top four defensemen starts with a first round pick.
Last year also provided a similar trade that the Penguins could look to for a possible return on their draft pick. The Montreal Canadiens traded the 13th and 66th overall picks in the 2022 Draft to the Chicago Blackhawks for center Kirby Dach.
Dach is an extremely talented young center who had trouble developing into the top end player the Blackhawks expected him to be. In an injury shortened first season with Montreal, Dach put up 13 goals and 38 points in 58 games, setting career high offensive marks with the Canadiens. At only 22, Dach has more to his game and looks to continue improving his offensive output next season. As long as he stays healthy, it feels fair to say the Canadiens acquired a second line center for the next few seasons for the 13th overall pick and a sweetener.
What do these two trades from the past few years mean for the Penguins? It doesn't guarantee any specific return, of course, but it does suggest that the value of the 14th overall pick is worth a proven and productive NHL player. There is unfortunately, a very difficult to overcome caveat. What sticks out about both of the above examples is that Ristolainen and Dach were in need of a change of scenery from their struggling organization. Whoever the Penguins might target via trade with their 14th pick, they need to find a player who meets the criteria of being both a top of the lineup player and wanting a fresh start.
If the Penguins decide to shop their first round pick, it will be used to pursue a player that helps this team compete for a Stanley Cup in the 2023-24 season. If they're smart with their approach, they could acquire a player that could be integral to the long-term plans for the organization as well.
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