In their push for the playoffs, the Pittsburgh Penguins are running into some trouble on the blue line - and, in particular, on their second pairing.
With the playoff race in the Eastern Conference reaching a fever pitch - and several teams right on their tail - the Pittsburgh Penguins cannot afford to let too many more points slip away.
On Sunday, they lost a crucial divisional matchup to the Carolina Hurricanes, which put them 10 points behind the Canes and, effectively, out of the running for the Metropolitan Division title. On the same day, the Columbus Blue Jackets and the New York Islanders squared off against one another, and with an Islanders' regulation win, both teams are now just one point back of the Penguins in the Metro.
The Penguins have gone 5-4-3 in the month of March, and while that's not a bad pace on the surface - especially given the difficulty of the team's schedule this month and the fact that they played five games without both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin - no one behind them in the standings is losing much at all, and they may be in the midst of their most challenging week of the season.
That loss to the Hurricanes also exposed a glaring issue for the Penguins as they prepare to play their final 12 games of the season: They're giving up far too many goals against right now.
Starting with their 5-4 shootout loss to the Hurricanes on Mar. 10 - in their last seven games - they've surrendered 31 goals, which is an average of 4.43 goals-against per game. The top defensive pairing of Erik Karlsson and Parker Wotherpsoon has been very good for the Penguins, and especially Karlsson, who has five goals and 10 points in his last five games and seven goals and 19 points since Feb. 28, which is top-five in the NHL during that timespan.
But, beyond the Penguins’ top pairing, things are a bit muddy.
Ryan Shea - who has been a consistent presence on the Penguins' left side all season long - was injured in Saturday's shootout win against the Winnipeg Jets and did not play against Carolina. He appears to be back in the fold for the Penguins' Tuesday contest against the Colorado Avalanche, but even with him in the lineup, the Penguins are surrendering too much.
For example, while Wotherspoon and Karlsson have a high figure for expected goals against at 39.2 - which is fourth-worst in the league - they are also seventh in the league in expected goals for at 40.5, which offsets some of that. Their expected goals share is 50.8 percent, while Shea and Connor Clifton have an expected goals share of 61.5 percent - good enough for 11th in the league among pairs with 100 or more minutes.
That same can't be said about the current second-pairing. Girard and Letang have an expected goals share of 48.5 percent, meaning they surrender a good bit more than they help. In addition, the pairings of Shea and Kris Letang (44th-worst at 2.94) as well as Sam Girard and Letang (88th-worst at 2.7) are within the league's bottom-100 - out of 283 - in terms of expected goals-against per 60 among pairs with at least 100 minutes together.
And the individual stats on Letang are especially damning.
Even though plus-minus is a mostly arbitrary stat nowadays, it can still tell a story. For example, Parker Wotherspoon and Erik Karlsson have been on the ice for the most goals-against in the last five games - nine each, to be exact, and six each at even-strength - they’re also still a plus-4 and a plus-3, respectively, in that span - meaning their offensive output is outweighing their defensive shortcomings.
As for Letang? He is the only regular Penguins’ defenseman in the minuses during that span, as everyone else has either been even or above. He is a minus-5 - only having been on the ice for one Penguins’ goal in that span - and each of the goals against while he was on the ice have come at even-strength.
Read into that what you will. However, it’s reasonable to expect better numbers from a second-pairing defenseman, especially one who is second only to Karlsson (24:13) in average ice time (23:24) in the last five games and over the course of the entire season.
So what is the move? Letang isn't likely to head to the press box, and the Penguins don't have another true stay-at-home defenseman on their roster aside from Wotherspoon - and breaking up Wotherspoon and Karlsson doesn't seem like a worthwhile risk at this juncture in the season, especially because it's been the one constant on their blue line this season - which has been a resurgent season for Karlsson.
Maybe Ilya Solovyov could be given a shot next to Letang. Or maybe the big Alexander Alexeyev, who is probably the closest to Wotherspoon in terms of a stay-at-home style but without the footspeed.
Until the Penguins figure out a second-pairing solution that works for them - between their high-event first pairing of Wotherspoon and Karlsson and all-around effective third-pairing of Shea and Clifton - they are likely to continue to give up a lot of good scoring chances, as the second pairing is still often deployed in some of the toughest minutes.
In any case, if the Penguins are to make the playoffs, they need to stop the bleeding - or, at least, do their best to remedy it - as soon as possible.
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