The Pittsburgh Penguins are fighting tooth and nail to make the playoffs for the first time in four years. But are their team numbers indicative of a team good enough to be a contender?
When their 2025-26 season began, outside expectations for the Pittsburgh Penguins were - as everyone knows at this point - not exactly glowing.
Many assumed that they would likely finish around where they did last season as the league's ninth-worst team. Many also assumed that things would look more bleak than that and that they'd end up a lottery team in contention for the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes. And, there were some believers who thought that this team would be chasing a wildcard spot in the stretch run of the season.
No matter where people found themselves on the spectrum of hope for the Penguins this season, very few predicted what has actually come to pass: this being a very good hockey team that is not only in a playoff spot with some situational advantages but also - potentially - a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
As of Mar. 20, the Penguins sit second in the Metropolitan Division with 84 points, eight points back of the division-leading Carolina Hurricanes and one point up on both the Columbus Blue Jackets and the New York Islanders - the second of which is out of the playoff picture. Although things are close, the Penguins currently have the tiebreaker on both teams, and they are positioned ahead - meaning a playoff berth is all within their control.
And there are many figures and data points that suggest this team may just be one of the league's best.
For one, they are tied for seventh in the NHL in points and points percentage, which goes to show that they're earning their way to the upper-half of the league's playoff picture. There are also only five NHL teams with more regulation wins than Pittsburgh (29), and the only two teams with fewer regulation losses than Pittsburgh's 18 are the Colorado Avalanche (13) and the Dallas Stars (15).
In addition, they're 5-16 in overtime and shootouts, two non-traditional formats that have cost the Penguins some points. If they had earned two points in even half of their overtime/shootout contests, they'd have 5-6 additional points and would be two points shy of Carolina for the division lead.
But, hypotheticals aside, there are some tangible numbers that suggest this Penguins' team could, in fact, be a real contender this season.
They are the only NHL team with both special teams units in the top-five
The Penguins know all too well that poor special teams can crush playoff hopes. Two seasons ago, they had the league's 30th-ranked power play and missed the playoffs by one point, so a power play goal here and there probably would have gotten them to the postseason.
Now? Their power play is ranked fourth in the NHL at 25.1 percent - and has pretty much been in the top-five all season long - and their penalty kill is even better at 84.2 percent, which is good enough for second in the league to only the Chicago Blackhawks (84.7 percent).
Having good special teams is a key advantage down the stretch and into the playoffs, especially because penalties generally aren't called with the same frequency or regularity in the playoffs as they are in the regular season. So, the ability to capitalize on the man advantage and kill off opposing power plays in the playoffs is a big one.
Their special teams can help them get to the postseason, and they would certainly help within it, too.
Their goals-for per game and goals-against per game are both top-10
Pittsburgh is both scoring goals at an elite rate and preventing them.
Their goals-for per game rate of 3.44 ranks sixth in the NHL, while their goals-against per game (2.94) ranks 10th. The influx of finishing ability is a massive development for this team, which has struggled to score in the past several seasons, and the goaltending and the defense have improved this season to the point that the Penguins have become a top-15 team in the league defensively at five-on-five.
At the end of the day, the puck in the back of the opposing net is a good thing, and the puck in your own net is a bad thing. The Penguins are coming out on the right side of both things.
Their shots for and shots against numbers are solid
Producing shots on goal and preventing them is also, typically, a measure of a good team.
The Penguins are eighth in the league in shots-for per game (29.1), and they are 12th in shots-against per game (27.4). And in terms of their offensive attack, not only are the Penguins generating a lot - according to Moneypuck, they are seventh in expected goals for per 60 (2.67) - they are also making it very difficult for opposing goaltenders and defenses.
They are the NHL’s fifth-best team in high-danger shots for (152), meaning they are getting a ton of good looks. They are also finishing on a fair amount of those looks, as Pittsburgh is ninth in the NHL in shooting percentage at 10.19 percent.
However, on the other end of the spectrum, the Penguins have surrendered the sixth-most high-danger shots against (147) in the league, behind only one current playoff team in the Boston Bruins. Of course, they will have to surrender less of those dangerous scoring chances if they want to both make the playoffs and make a run, but their goaltending has been good and timely enough to stymie a good chunk of those.
Sidney Crosby (right) and Anthony Mantha are the top-two team leaders in shooting percentage and are also top-two in goals on the team. Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn ImagesThey have the seventh-highest goal differential in the league
The Penguins' goal differential has been pretty high all season long, at times squeaking into the top-five. Right now, it is seventh-best at plus-25, and - well - the only teams ahead of them are the six teams ahead of them in the league standings.
That's a pretty good indicator that - like the six teams ahead of them - they are simply a good hockey team. After the Penguins at 7, the goal differential order gets a little jumbled, as the 17th-ranked (points-wise) Utah Mammoth are behind the Penguins at eight (plus-23), and the 13th-ranked Ottawa Senators are behind them at nine (plus-18).
And, according to Moneypuck, they are also ninth in goals differential per 60 at 0.28.
The Penguins' goal differential numbers track with the teams above them, as the top-seven teams in the league are clearly the most consistent teams across the board.
Their PDO indicates that what they’re doing is sustainable
Many folks point to PDO - personal discouragement outcomes - as an indicator of how lucky a team is getting as well as whether or not what they’re accomplishing is sustainable. PDO combines team shooting percentage and team save percentage to determine this, so a high PDO (above 100) typically correlates with a team relying on good goaltending and high shooting percentage, while a low PDO (below 100) shows they can’t rely on either and are getting very unlucky.
Well, the good thing for the Penguins is that they find themselves in the middle of the pack. Their PDO (100.67) is 12th in the NHL, and they’re right in the vicinity of other teams who are chasing them, including the Blue Jackets (13th) and the Islanders (16th).
Four of the five teams at the top of the list in PDO are four of the top-five teams in the NHL points-wise, which includes the Stars, Tampa Bay Lightning, Colorado Avalanche and Buffalo Sabres. So, pure shooting talent as well as goaltending talent does play a role here, as these teams have benefited tremendously from high save percentage and shooting percentage.
The Penguins seem to be in that perfect sweet spot where they’re good enough in both departments to the extent where getting a timely save or finishing aren’t problems - like they have been in the past - but where they aren’t necessarily reliant on either for their success.
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