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 Recognizing Fault Lines - Matt Larkin - April. 6, 2021 - Vol. 74, Issue. 04

OH, TO BE A hockey fan in California in 2014. The NHL playoffs opened with the Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks and Los Angeles Kings holding the top three spots in the Pacific Division and sitting second, fifth and 10th in the overall standings. The Kings rallied from a 3-0 series deficit in Round 1 to defeat the Sharks in seven games before taking down the Ducks in another seven-game war. Los Angeles ended up winning its second Stanley Cup in a three-season span.

From 2007 through 2017, the Kings, Ducks and Sharks were among the league’s alpha franchises, combining for three Stanley Cups, four appearances in the final and 10 of 11 Pacific Division titles. Surviving the West meant going through Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, Joe Thornton and Brent Burns. But the dominance began to dry up like the California Raisins when the Vegas Golden Knights joined the fray with the 2017 expansion draft. By 2020, all three California squads were among the seven teams that didn’t qualify for the bubble playoff tournament.

Yet only one of the three cellar dwellers would’ve admitted to being a rebuilder.

The Sharks, surprise Cup finalists in 2015-16 after a rare playoff miss the year prior, have limped along attempting to remain contenders. They’ve tried to make the playoffs every year. It’s a key tenet of GM Doug Wilson’s philosophy. “I do not believe in complete rebuilds, because how do I look at my head coach or my players who have committed long-term contracts to us, and all of a sudden they don’t have a chance to win?” Wilson told me in September 2018.

Sharks Claim Iorio Off Waivers & Place Liljegren On The IR The San Jose Sharks have announced some roster moves today.

He was explaining his motivation for the Erik Karlsson trade, which cost the Sharks top prospect Josh Norris and a first-round pick that became Tim Stutzle, among other assets. The season prior, the Sharks sacrificed a first-round pick to acquire Evander Kane. From 2016 through 2020, the Sharks only held two of their first-round picks by draft day and traded away one of the players they took. They had to acquire Tampa Bay’s first-round pick just to get back into the first round last year. They currently have $40.25 million, exactly half their cap space, tied up in a quintet of players older than 30 who have multiple seasons left on their contracts. Wilson went for it and came away without a Cup – and without any foundation of high-end prospects. The Sharks’ progression in the Future Watch rankings over the past five seasons: 25th, 30th, 30th, 31st, 30th.

After 2017-18, the Ducks’ fifth consecutive 100-point season, they slid out of the playoff picture. They’d taken one last shot at a major win-now move that season, trading for center Adam Henrique, but GM Bob Murray began to play things conservatively after that. He tied a ton of money into long-term deals for his existing core, believing it could grow into a contender. Getzlaf and Perry were already signed long-term, and Murray handed big extensions to goalie John Gibson, blueliners Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson and Cam Fowler and even Henrique between 2016 and 2018. When he bought out Perry following the 2018-19 season, Murray sent a message that the Ducks were shifting to a younger core even if it meant being stagnant in the standings. The Ducks tried to remain competitive from within but didn’t sacrifice their future to do so. They’ve picked in the first round in 20 of the past 21 drafts. They parlayed playoff misses into top-10 draft picks and nabbed their best prospects since Getzlaf and Perry in Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale across the past two drafts. The Ducks’ Future Watch progression: ninth, 20th, 21st, 14th, 4th.

The first California team to recognize its window had passed: the Kings, helmed by GM Rob Blake. Since he took the job in 2017, Blake has kept every first-round pick and acquired an extra one. In the past four drafts, the Kings selected 11 players in the first two rounds. They’ve sold off veterans such as Jake Muzzin and Tyler Toffoli to score additional picks and prospects. They’ve been stingy with their free-agent spending. The Kings’ Future Watch progression: 30th, 26th, 26th, 13th and 3rd. Rising slowly and steadily, L.A. was easily the closest California team to 2020-21 playoff contention at press time. By recognizing and accepting that they were bad, the Kings bottomed out faster, picked higher in the draft and shed contracts without remorse. They realized the best way to go forward was to go backward.

So one state produces three fallen juggernauts with three divergent paths to retooling. And the first California team to stop chasing a championship in the present is the one poised to climb the NHL’s contender ladder in the near future.

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