It's not guaranteed that Gavin McKenna will be selected by the Toronto Maple Leafs with the first overall pick. Swedish star Ivar Stenberg has proven to many that he would be just as great a pick as anyone to lead the 2026 NHL draft.
While it's not a consensus for Gavin McKenna to be selected first overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs, that seems to be the most likely scenario. After all, BetMGM has McKenna set as the favorite to be the first overall pick for the upcoming 2026 draft at 1.19 (-526) odds.
However, that doesn't completely rule out the option of taking Swedish youngster Ivar Stenberg with the No. 1 pick this year.
Stenberg, 18, has impressed in recent international tournaments, including the current IIHF World Championship. This season, the 5-foot-11 left winger has also featured in the World Junior Championship and the SHL with Frolunda.
Stenberg has been a standout performer for Sweden at the World Championship. He's second on the team in scoring among forwards with two goals and six points in five games. He's tied on points with the likes of Sidney Crosby and just one point shy of equalling Macklin Celebrini's current total.
Earlier in the year, at the world juniors, he was just as impressive, leading the Swedes in scoring with four goals and 10 points in seven contests. His contributions and talent helped push Sweden to its first gold medal at the tournament since 2012.
Domestically, he's had a solid campaign for Frolunda in Sweden's top league. Stenberg scored 11 goals and 22 assists for 33 points in 43 appearances. That was enough for him to lead all junior players in the SHL in assists and points. Also, he added a Champions Hockey League title to his cabinet with Frolunda.
TheHockeyNews.com prospect expert Tony Ferrari ranked Stenberg at No. 1 in his last list back in late April. The argument for the top pick between Stenberg and McKenna is real, and part of that is how much of a complete player he already is.
"Every time I watched him, I gained more appreciation for the total package that Stenberg brings to the ice," Ferrari wrote in his last ranking.
"His offensive game is almost as effective as anyone in the draft class – Gavin McKenna included – even if he doesn't produce in quite as flashy a style. He is one of the most productive draft-eligible players ever to play in the Swedish League.
"What makes Stenberg stand out is that while he can give an excellent offensive performance, he can also play intelligent defensive hockey, and he displays fluidity in transition," Ferrari added.
It's fair to say that McKenna may have a higher ceiling than Stenberg offensively. But as a complete player and the impact he could make out of the gate in all areas of the ice, Ferrari and other draft experts believe that's why the Swede will go first overall.
Furthermore, Ferrari made a comparison between the two players and who the best fit for the Leafs would be. In categories such as skating and mobility, shooting and scoring, and defensive impact, Stenberg earned the edge.
"If I were the Maple Leafs' GM, I would lean toward changing the team's philosophy and building a better playoff squad, which would make Stenberg the pick," he wrote.
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