The latest issue of THN reveals the Toronto Maple Leafs' predicted finish in the Atlantic Division standings and individual stat projections for the team's top players.
It's hard to gauge what the Toronto Maple Leafs will look like for the coming 2026-27 NHL season. Their nine-year playoff streak ended this past campaign, and the organization saw a haul of changes as a result.
Toronto has an entirely new coaching staff and a roster that has seen notable additions in all positions, and most of the front office has been altered.
Even if the Leafs are coming off one of their worst campaigns of the last 10 years, all the changes warrant the possibility of a return to the post-season in 2026-27.
In The Hockey News' 2026 Yearbook issue, the magazine made predictions of where each NHL team will finish in their division, as well as individual projections for skaters and goaltenders.
For the Maple Leafs, they were predicted to finish in fourth place in the Atlantic Division, which would leave them battling for a wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.
Toronto was picked to finish ahead of the Buffalo Sabres, while being just behind the Tampa Bay Lightning.
THN's Atlantic Division Standings:
- Florida Panthers
- Montreal Canadiens
- Tampa Bay Lightning
- Toronto Maple Leafs
- Buffalo Sabres
- Ottawa Senators
- Boston Bruins
- Detroit Red Wings
The story of the Atlantic Division being arguably the toughest in the NHL continues, as any team in the bunch, except the Detroit Red Wings, has a true shot at getting into the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Ottawa Senators and Boston Bruins are predicted not to get into the post-season, despite getting in this past year.
Toronto is pencilled outside of the top three, meaning that it wouldn't guarantee them a spot in the playoffs, but that gives the team a pretty good chance of getting in.
The Leafs would, of course, be fighting with the Sabres for an Eastern wild-card position, according to this prediction, but they would also need to worry about the fourth- and fifth-placed teams in the Metropolitan Division.
THN predicted the New Jersey Devils and Pittsburgh Penguins to finish fourth and fifth, respectively. Toronto had a season record of 1-1-1 against New Jersey and 3-0-0 against Pittsburgh in 2025-26.
Player Projections
As the team is projected to finish around the middle of the pack in the division, what is expected of the players on the roster? Let's look at the familiar faces first.
Auston Matthews is a huge X-factor for the Maple Leafs this coming year, as he hasn't been himself the past two years. But with a new head coach in Jim Hiller and plenty of time to rest whatever lingering injuries he had, THN expects Matthews to score goals at an elite level again.
The Maple Leafs captain is projected to record 43 goals and 37 assists for 80 points in the new 84-game regular season for this coming year. Those would be his highest goal and point totals since he put up 69 goals and 107 points in 2023-24.
Overlooking the league's top scorers in this prediction, Matthews would finish tied for 11th for the most goals in the NHL, equal with Buffalo's Tage Thompson. He ties for 37th in points, alongside Dylan Guenther, Cutter Gauthier, Brady Tkachuk, Robert Thomas and Aleksander Barkov.
Another Maple Leafs star expected to register big numbers is William Nylander. The right winger is actually predicted to be the team's leading scorer for the second straight season, after leading the way this past year with 79 points.
He's predicted to outscore his 2025-26 numbers and reach 41 goals and 48 assists for 89 points. This would mark the fourth time in his career that he would score 40 goals and the fifth time to hit the 80-point plateau.
His points projection for the coming season matches Wyatt Johnston's, while goals equal Kyle Connor's.
John Tavares is expected to see a dip in production as he turns 36 years old ahead of the 2026-27 season opener. The veteran center is projected to score 28 goals and 35 assists for 63 points.
That would be an eight-point decrease from his 71 points and three fewer goals than this past year. His projections compare to Tomas Hertl, Matt Duchene and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
To round out the core forwards of the Maple Leafs, Matthew Knies is expected to begin reaching for point-per-game territory. He's predicted to score 32 goals and 46 assists for 78 points this coming season, which would mark the first time the 23-year-old would reach 30 goals and 70 points.
Knies ties Adam Fantilli for points and is placed just under Matthew Schaefer's 79 points.
On defense, Morgan Rielly is another player who will have lots of eyeballs on his game with a new opportunity, playing in a new system.
The Leafs veteran isn't expected to go back to how he performed in 2018-19 (20 goals and 72 points). But he's estimated to improve from the past two seasons.
Rielly is projected to score seven goals and 35 assists for 42 points on the year. It would be a six-point improvement from 2025-26 and marks a .50 point-per-game average that is realistic for the player to achieve. Those numbers hover around Denton Mateychuk, Jamie Drysdale, Brent Burns and Thomas Chabot.
The two youngest players projected to be on the Maple Leafs' roster this coming season, Easton Cowan and Gavin McKenna, are anticipated to have rather productive campaigns.
For Cowan's sophomore season, he's projected to score 17 goals and 30 assists for 47 points. And for McKenna's rookie season and hunt for the Calder Trophy, he's predicted to notch 15 goals and 37 assists for 52 points.
Cowan's numbers compare to other young NHLers such as Matthew Wood, Gabe Perreault, Jake Neighbours and Tyson Foerster. As for McKenna, he's ranked ahead of rookies Ivar Stenberg, Cole Hutson, Konsta Helenius and James Hagens in terms of points.
Another polarizing member of the Maple Leafs is off-season addition Darren Raddysh, who is coming off a career year of 22 goals and 70 points with the Lightning.
The right-handed blueliner isn't expected to increase his totals from 2025-26. In fact, he's estimated to score 13 goals and 45 assists for 58 points. Still solid numbers for a defenseman, but quite the drop from what he achieved this past year.
Other Maple Leafs skater projections include Nick Paul (20 goals, 41 points), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (six goals, 32 points), and Jack Roslovic (22 goals and 44 points).
Toronto's goaltending is expected to be fairly average this coming season.
Newcomer Sergei Bobrovsky is slotted to register 29 wins, as well as a .905 save percentage, a 2.62 goals-against average and two shutouts. That's certainly an upgrade from the .877 SP he recorded in 2025-26.
Anthony Stolarz is also expected to improve from his .893 SP. He's projected to earn 16 wins while posting a .902 SP, a 2.89 GAA and two shutouts.
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