While the Memorial Cup's finals is still set to kick off tonight at 7 PM, the QMJHL will be nowhere to be found on the ice despite Rimouski hosting the event as both the Rimouski Océanic and the Moncton Wildcats have found themselves eliminated ahead of the big game.

What and how exactly did this happen? 

Well, there's two major ways to analyze the league's collapse at the big stage. At the micro level, i.e. on a performance basis, and at the macro level, the systemic issues that have held back the QMJHL -- not just at this tournament, but even in drafted talent.

Small picture failures

Penalty kill

Out of the gate, it's reasonable to say that both the London Knights and the Medicine Hat Tigers are much better teams on paper.

Both teams boast more NHL-bound talent than the Océanic and the Wildcats, and generally of the NHL drafted talent, more are taken high in the draft and seem to have strong upside. Meanwhile the two teams from the QMJHL seem to have a few key players and a few high end depth pieces, focused on niche roles. 

While technically this is a macro-level look at the rosters, this is brought up for a very specific reason: penalty kill. When against teams that are generally more skilled than you, you cannot afford them space. This is arguably more of note on the penalty kill.

Simply, the Moncton Wildcats and the Rimouski Océanic would have benefitted further from a more aggressive penalty kill approach. Not to mention with Moncton, they could have used less penalties as well, as they seemed to take a lot of stick infraction calls and even got caught with too many men on the ice.

Engagement in corners

One of the most important things in hockey is puck battles as puck battles drive possession numbers and puck posession leads to shots and eventual goals, while limiting chances for the other team.

There is a caveat here that will be explored in the big picture failures section on why this may be more than just a micro failure, however this was an area of concern in the round robin games. Both Rimouski and Moncton did not engage much in the corners at the beginning of the tournament, often coming in slow or avoiding it entirely. This changed over the course of the Memorial Cup as the times that players did engage, they were often rewarded with a scoring chance or even a goal.

A player to salute in this category was Anaheim Ducks prospect Alexandre Blais of the Rimouski Océanic, who was an active forechecking threat throughout the tournament. 

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Goaltending

In addition to these failures, goaltending is also a concern, particularily for Moncton. While Mathis Rousseau had himself a good tournament statistically, there were many times throughout the tournament where his decision making seemed to go out the window.

Perhaps it was the heightened pace of the best-on-best tournament, no doubt heightened by his team's inability to strip pucks from Medicine Hat and London and make it out of the defensive zone, but he played very erratically. Rousseau would often sacrifice his positioning on saves to throw his entire body at the area. It worked more often than it should, but it also led to a few goals against. He particularily struggled against London, who exploited his grandiose movements to catch him biting on the shot before passing to a teammate on the other side.

Clearing the crease

An area where both teams struggled was clearing the crease. Both Medicine Hat and London exploited the QMJHL teams by setting up screens to make the goalie unable to see the play and potentially get a tip or rebound. 

The one exception for both of these teams who really stood out in this area was Boston Bruins prospect Loke Johansson of the Moncton Wildcats, who consistantly made room in front of the crease for his goaltender and even bailed out the Cats twice in the tournament with goal line saves.

Shot selection

Goalies, like any of us, tend to have weaknesses. Those weaknesses can be challenged, but to a point, you cannot force shots at these weaker areas when frankly the timing isn't right.

This is a problem that the Moncton Wildcats seemed to have faced when taking on the London Knights and their goaltender Austin Elliott. The team seemed to make a point about shooting glove on Elliott in the semi-finals, and it seemed to have snakebitten them in the process.

While it's possible that Elliott's glove may be weaker, he's also been beaten with net front screens and back door passing plays. As a player, you have to work with what you are given, and while it is important to take these factors into consideration, context is important. As a goaltender who knows that the shooters are consistently going glove will have an easier time than a goaltender who doesn't know whether the shooter is.

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Big picture failures

Strength, conditioning and leverage

A really striking point that former AHL and NHL assistant coach Jack Han had made note of before on his Substack detailing the fall of Jonathan Huberdeau under Darryl Sutter's system.

How is this relevent? He brings up the issue that Huberdeau and many Quebec developed prospects seem to be unaware or very poor in how to leverage yourself in physical situations to win puck battles or power to the net. 

I'd even go further to say that generally speaking, the QMJHL lags behind its counterparts in strength and conditioning. Among the two QMJHL teams' most physically robust players were Loke Johansson (Moncton) and Washington Capitals prospect Eriks Mateiko (Rimouski), both imports. Most of the other players were unable to physically engage with the Medicine Hat Tigers or the London Knights. 

While it may seem like an old school thought to prioritize strength and conditioning, there's some new-school wisdom in why it is important. Added muscle translates to not only more power generated through contact physically, but also in skating strides and in shot power. As such, just by being physically conditioned, it can translate to all different areas of their game.

Frankly, there was no reason for the smooth skating, mobile Etienne Morin (Calgary) to get beat in a foot race one on one against depth guys on either team, nor was there any reason why the 6-foot-5, 200+ pound Gabe Smith (Utah) gets reverse checked off his feet by 5-foot-9, 165 pound defenseman Jonas Woo of the Medicine Hat Tigers.

These transgressions don't only impact the two teams here, but also the league as a whole. It's likely a major factor as to why the QMJHL lags behind its CHL counterparts in terms of both first round talents and total drafted talents on a year by year basis now.

Goaltending

The QMJHL's goaltending issues are stemmed from the lagged physical development of its players.

I don't necessarily think that at the root, Quebec and Atlantic Canada's goaltending development is necessarily any worse than the other regions as goaltenders like Gabriel D'Aigle and Olivier Rodrigue (Edmonton) have been at one point heralded as the future of Canadian goaltending.

However, there is something to be said about how Rodrigue has failed to crack the NHL consistently at 24, falling behind the later drafted Stuart Skinner, and how Gabriel D'Aigle isn't considered a Top 5 goalie prospect in this draft, let alone Top 10.

Where I think the issue lies in the QMJHL's goaltending is stagnation. They face players whose shots are generally weaker and footspeed is slightly slower.

As such, you see among the Top 10 in save percentage this season that it is dominated by first and second year QMJHL veterans such as Alexis Cournoyer, Louis-Felix Charrois, Felix Hamel, Lucas Beckman, Rimouski's Mathis Langevin and USHL-convert Moncton's Rudy Guimond (Detroit).

Meanwhile, a number of the more tenured goaltenders have seemed to have taken steps back in their game, such as Mathis Rousseau, Remi Delafontaine, Nicolas Ruccia, Samuel St-Hilaire and the aforementioned D'Aigle.

This is not to say that there aren't good goalie prospects in the QMJHL, far from it. Just that the lowered competition level among players compared to the other leagues may have also inadvertantly marked a ceiling for goaltending development amongst the league's most tenured goaltenders -- as if goaltenders can still make saves in spite of bad habits, they'll be more likely to continue those habits so long as they are still able to make saves.

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In spite of these issues -- some individual, some systemic -- both Moncton and Rimouski had their moments and at times looked like the dominating teams they had shown during the season.

However, they just could cement the victories. 

While Rimouski went all-in in their approach to the Memorial Cup, Moncton still could have a pretty formidable group next season as they may be poised for another go-around.

Time will tell if the QMJHL can get it done in Kelowna next year, as a representative from the league will try to take home a fifth Memorial Cup over the last seven tournaments.

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