Jason Chen takes a look at five NHL players who are unlikely to match their fantasy production from last season.
Can he do it again? That’s the key question when any NHL player outperforms their expectations.
In fantasy hockey, players who outperform expectations can be the biggest value traps because we draft these players thinking their strong performances will continue, when in reality it’s probably because they got a little more lucky than usual.
Those are some of the biggest questions fantasy managers ask themselves. As part of the countdown to the 2026-27 fantasy season, we count down the top five players who are unlikely to match last season’s performances.
1. Scott Wedgewood, G, Colorado Avalanche
The general consensus is a 31-6-6 record, a league-leading .921 save percentage and a 2.02 goals-against average just seems too difficult to replicate for any goalie, much less a journeyman entering his age-34 season in a potential timeshare with Mackenzie Blackwood.
Wedgewood’s 28.3 goals-saved above average last season per hockey-reference.com was five times better than his second-best season in 2022-23 with the Stars. It's also only the fourth time in eight seasons it was a positive number.
The Avalanche will provide plenty of goal support but drafting Wedgewood in the same tier as the elite goalies such as Jeremy Swayman – or even drafting him without also drafting Blackwood – is a bad value bet. Keep in mind, too, that Blackwood is on a long-term contract.
2. Anthony Mantha, LW/RW, New Jersey Devils
When does the music stop? We knew Mantha was a prolific goal-scorer in major junior, but he's on a legendary three-season run with a league-best 21.4 shooting percentage over the past three seasons, the highest mark among players who have scored at least 50 goals during that span.
It’s coincided with a PDO that’s run over 1.000, an on-ice shooting percentage that’s trended up for three consecutive seasons and a goals for total that’s exceeded his expected goals, per Natural Stat Trick.
It's possible Mantha has finally blossomed into a dependable goal-scorer in his 30s, but shooting percentages can be like gravity; what goes up, must come down.
That’s not mentioning that he’ll be lower on the pecking order with the Devils than with the Penguins, especially after they acquired Luke Evangelista and Arseny Gritsyuk looking to build off a decent rookie season and offers more upside and youth.
It's worth mentioning there are a few players — Morgan Geekie and Gabe Vilardi included — who profile very similarly with very high shooting percentages over the past few seasons. Mantha is the oldest and he won’t be guaranteed top-six minutes, which makes him the riskiest fantasy option.
3. Pavel Zacha, C/LW, Boston Bruins
Zacha's 30-goal season came out of nowhere for a player who doesn’t shoot the puck very often and isn't really known for his offense or finishing ability. What really buoyed his production was his career-high 22 points on the power play, including 11 goals, which will be difficult to replicate.
Maybe the Bruins power play, which ranked ninth in the league last season, continues to excel, but note among the 181 players who registered at least 20 shots on the power play, Zacha ranked 167th in shots per 60 minutes but finished tied for 20th in goals.
He was hyper efficient — a big reason why his shooting percentage ballooned to 22.9 percent — and note he may not even get a chance to replicate his previous season’s production if JJ Peterka takes his spot on the top power play.
4. Darren Raddysh, D, Toronto Maple Leafs
Raddysh will be hard-pressed to accomplish what he did last season but he has all the tools to be a bona fide power-play quarterback. Unfortunately, he’ll be a lightning rod all season — no pun intended for the former Bolt — given his massive contract in one of hockey's biggest markets.
The Maple Leafs power play doesn’t have the same quality of personnel as the Lightning, but Raddysh should still be able to score close to 20 goals and offer a bevy of power-play points. I think his production will regress, but only slightly and not enough to be considered a bust in fantasy.
He was given an honourable mention on my list of top 10 defensemen, and I stand by it. There will be those who will scream, "I told you so!" should Raddysh struggle, but it would be surprising given the minutes he will play and his undeniable offensive ability.
THN Fantasy Guide projects Raddysh to score 58 points this season, which I think is the floor, and it would’ve still ranked in the top 20 last season.
5. Wyatt Johnston, C/RW, Dallas Stars
Betting the under on 40 goals feels very tempting with Johnston. Such a significant portion of his goals — 27 of 45 to be exact — came on the power play, which led to an inflated 21.8 shooting percentage.
There have been only 27 instances in the cap era where a player has managed to score at least 20 power-play goals in a single season, and only two players, Leon Draisaitl and Alex Ovechkin, have been able to do it in consecutive seasons. It’s just not easy to replicate.
Johnston should still be an excellent fantasy player with point-per-game potential, but I’d exercise caution if you think he’s going to contend for the Rocket Richard or if you’re leaning on him as a source of goals.
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