With the new forecast of the NHL's salary cap two years into the future, it's time to start thinking about who will be reaching the $30-million-per-year status.
According to a report from Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman, the NHL's salary cap is expected to jump from $104 million to $127.5 million in the next two years.
And just like that, all the contracts that were signed this summer now seem like bargains.
It's a strange thing to say after Colorado's Cale Makar became the league's first $20-million-per-year player following an eight-year extension worth $163.2 million. But with the cap expected to increase by $23.5 million from now to 2028-29, don't be surprised if Makar gives up his title as the league's highest-paid player before his shiny new contract even kicks in next season.
After all, it took only 26 days for the San Jose Sharks' Macklin Celebrini ($18.8 million AAV) to eclipse Anaheim Ducks star Leo Carlsson ($18 million AAV) as the highest-paid player. Less than a month later, Makar signed his record-setting deal.
Which raises the question: how long before we get a $25-million player? Or, with the way the cap is rising, a $30-million player?
Well, with Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid and Toronto Maple Leafs' Auston Matthews both set to be UFAs in the summer of 2028 — along with Columbus Blue Jackets' Zach Werenski — it could happen a lot sooner than we initially thought.
After all, it took less than two years for the NHL's highest-paid player to go from $15 million to $20 million — and that was during a span when the salary cap increased by $16 million. In the next two years, the increase could be as high as $23.5 million.
It's no wonder that this was the summer when players got paid. It's almost as if the players had a Magic 8-Ball and knew what the future held.
Perhaps they did.
In an interview earlier this month, Celebrini hinted that he and his agent negotiated his contract with the knowledge that the salary cap was going to be rising to unheard-of heights in the next couple of years, and negotiated accordingly.
"We were just looking at the projections and all the stuff that maybe not a lot of people know what’s going to happen," Celebrini told TheHockeyNews.com and other outlets at the NHL Player Media Tour in Las Vegas. "Looking at those numbers and trying to find that balance, which kind of sounds dumb, because at the time it was the highest AAV ever. But it really was just a number that made sense … with where the NHL is going."
Carlsson, who is partly responsible for starting the spending frenzy by signing a five-year, $90-million offer sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers — which the Ducks then matched — had a different feeling.
"I was surprised, for sure. It was a weird feeling," Carlsson said. "It is also (an indication of) where the league is heading. After this, it doesn't feel as weird … players are now thanking me."
Indeed, the league has come a long way since Sidney Crosby arrived in the NHL in 2005-06, in what was the first year of the NHL's salary cap. Back then, the cap was set at $39 million, and Jaromir Jagr had the highest cap hit at $8.36 million.
In a couple of years, you might not even be able to get a fourth-line forward for that amount.
"It just evolves," Crosby said, whose cap hit has remained $8.7 million for each of the past 18 seasons. "I don’t try to compare, because now is different than then. It’s obviously been a pretty sudden change with the last few contracts, with offer sheets and things like that. That changed a lot right there. That’s the reality of where everything’s at."
As for the rising expectations that come with a rising cap hit, there's going to be a lot more scrutiny on players this year. It wasn't just the superstars who broke the bank.
Carlsson said he's unbothered by the pressure. As a No. 2 overall pick of the 2023 draft, he said he's used to living up to expectations. From Trevor Zegras ($9.125 million) to Ryan Leonard ($10.5 million), a lot of players are being paid based on future potential and what the salary cap will look like in the next several years. And not every contract is going to pan out.
"Obviously, this is a different kind of pressure," Carlsson said, who scored a career-best 29 goals and 67 points last season. "I feel like that's one of the strongest parts of my game too, my calmness with pressure. When I hit the ice, there's no pressure."
For action-packed issues, access to the entire magazine archive and a free issue, subscribe to The Hockey News at THN.com/free.
See more of The Hockey News on Google and save us as a preferred source. Get the latest news and trending stories by subscribing to our newsletter here. And share your thoughts by commenting below the article on THN.com or creating your own post in our community forum.
