What We've Learned From Past NHL Drafts: Top Players Slip In Annual Crapshoot

Having the No. 1 overall pick in the draft is important, but it doesn’t guarantee you will get the best player.

And while that pick is not always a “gimme,” NHL teams have done just OK in the last two-plus decades. A little less than half of those teams have used the No. 1 overall pick to perfection, dating back to the start of 2000.

From 2000 to 2021 – it’s too early to judge the drafts from 2022 to 2024 because those players are a work in progress – there were 22 players selected No. 1 overall.

Arguably, only 10 of those 22 teams (45.5 percent) got the pick right. Yes, it’s a crapshoot.

That said, you can argue that some teams that were given an “incorrect” grade actually got the pick right based on need. In 2014, for instance, the Florida Panthers took Aaron Ekblad No. 1 overall. Ekblad has anchored Florida’s defense and has been a true No. 1 defender. But in most circles, the Edmonton Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl (drafted No. 3 overall) and Boston Bruins’ David Pastrnak (No. 25) are rated as the best players in that draft class.

The same “need logic” can be used for the 2003 draft. The Pittsburgh Penguins filled a need by taking goalie Marc-Andre Fleury first overall. Fleury has had a Hall of Fame career, but hindsight tells us that Patrice Bergeron, nabbed by Boston with the 45th overall selection, was the top player of that class.

That’s the dilemma facing NHL teams as they prepare for the 2025 draft. 

Defenseman Matthew Schaefer and center Michael Misa are considered the top two players (in that order), but a team’s need might cause it to select a player not necessarily ranked that high. The New York Islanders have the top pick, and the San Jose Sharks have the No. 2 selection.

Those picking after the Isles and Sharks can find solace in the fact that many players not viewed as a particular draft’s jewel have fallen beyond Nos. 1 and 2 – in some cases, way beyond – and turned out to be the top player in the class.

In 2006, defenseman Erik Johnson was chosen No. 1 by the St. Louis Blues, and center Jordan Staal went No. 2 to Pittsburgh. But some of the most productive players in that draft were Brad Marchand (No. 71 overall to Boston) and Claude Giroux (No. 22 overall to Philadelphia). Marchand has the most goals (424) in that draft class, and Giroux has the most points (1,116).

In some of the more recent drafts, the arguably best player turned out to be the No. 4 pick in 2017 (Cale Makar to Colorado) and the No. 7 selection in 2018 (Quinn Hughes to Vancouver).

So far, the best player from the 2020 draft was the No. 3 pick (Tim Stutzle to Ottawa), and Wyatt Johnston, 23rd overall by the Dallas Stars in 2021, is looking like the premier player from the class.

In other words, it’s not an exact science, no matter how much hype the prospects receive from the draft experts.

Here is a list of the No. 1 overall picks from 2000 to 2024 and, excluding the last three drafts, the players who have emerged as the best from the respective classes:

No. 1 overall pick: Rick DiPietro, NY Islanders

Best player in hindsight: DiPietro wasn’t even the best goalie in the draft. That distinction went to Henrik Lundqvist, who was taken in the seventh round, 205th overall, by the other New York team, the Rangers. He emerged as one of the greatest goalies in history, collecting the sixth-most NHL victories.  Lundqvist finished with 459 wins – 329 more than DiPietro.

No. 1 overall pick: Ilya Kovalchuk, Atlanta

Best player in hindsight: Kovalchuk (443 goals)

No. 1 overall pick: Rick Nash, Columbus

Best player in hindsight: Duncan Keith, drafted 54th overall by Chicago, edges out Nash (437 goals). Keith was a dominant two-way defenseman who finished with 646 points and a plus-159 rating (tops in the class). He won two Norris Trophies as the NHL’s best defenseman.

No. 1 overall pick: Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh

Best player in hindsight: It’s difficult to argue against Fleury, who emerged as one of the league’s top goalies – 575 wins, second in NHL history. But Patrice Bergeron (427 goals, 1,040 points) became the ultimate two-way player and the game’s best defensive forward (six Selke Trophies). Bergeron was the best of this class, though fans of Joe Pavelski (drafted in the seventh round at No. 205 overall) might disagree. Pavelski led the class in goals (476) and points (1,068).

No. 1 overall pick: Alex Ovechkin, Washington

Best player in hindsight: Duh. Ovechkin (897 goals, 1,623 points) has rewritten the record books.

No. 1 overall pick: Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh

Best player in hindsight: Crosby (625 goals, 1,687 points). But Anze Kopitar (440 goals, 1,278 points) was a pretty good consolation prize at No. 11 overall.

No. 1 overall pick: Erik Johnson, St. Louis

Best player in hindsight: Brad Marchand (424 goals), No. 71 overall, Boston

No. 1 overall pick: Patrick Kane, Chicago

Best player in hindsight: Kane (492 goals), but how did Jamie Benn (399 goals) drop to No. 129 overall?

No. 1 overall pick: Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay

Best player in hindsight: Stamkos (582 goals, 1,190 points) 

No. 1 overall pick: John Tavares, NY Islanders

Best player in hindsight: Tavares (494 goals, 1,114 points)

No. 1 overall pick: Taylor Hall, Edmonton

Best player in hindsight: Tyler Seguin (360 goals), No. 2 overall, Boston

No. 1 overall pick: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton

Best player in hindsight: Nikita Kucherov (357 goals, 994 points), No. 58 overall, Tampa Bay

No. 1 overall pick: Nail Yakupov, Edmonton

Best player in hindsight: Andrei Vasilevskiy (331-163-35 record, 2.52 GAA, .917 save percentage, two Stanley Cup wins), 19th overall, Tampa Bay

No. 1 overall pick: Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado

Best player in hindsight: MacKinnon (367 goals, 1,015 points)

No. 1 overall pick: Aaron Ekblad, Florida

Best player in hindsight: Leon Draisaitl (399 goals), Edmonton

No. 1 overall pick: Connor McDavid, Edmonton

Best player in hindsight: The Great One, Part II

No. 1 overall pick: Auston Matthews, Toronto

Best pick in hindsight: Matthews (401 goals)

No. 1 overall pick: Nico Hischier, New Jersey

Best player in hindsight: Cale Makar (428 points, plus-136 in 395 games), No. 4 overall, Colorado

No. 1 overall pick: Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo

Best player in hindsight: Quinn Hughes (409 points, plus-31), No. 7 overall, Vancouver. Brady Tkachuk (191 goals), selected No. 4 overall by Ottawa, was a strong candidate.

No. 1 overall pick: Jack Hughes, New Jersey

Best player in hindsight: Hughes (141 goals, 351 points)

No. 1 overall pick: Alexis Lafreniere, NY Rangers

Best player in hindsight: Tim Stutzle (115 goals), No. 3 overall, Ottawa

No. 1 overall pick: Owen Power, Buffalo

Best player in hindsight: We’ll give the nod to Wyatt Johnston (89 goals, 177 points, plus-22), selected No. 23 overall by Dallas. But Power is very close.

No. 1 overall pick: Juraj Slafkovsky, Montreal

Best player in hindsight: Too early to evaluate as many of the players in this class are still developing.

No. 1 overall pick: Connor Bedard, Chicago

Best player in hindsight: See above.

No. 1 overall pick: Macklin Celebrini, San Jose

Best player in hindsight: Again, too early to evaluate.

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