A deep learning model projected the NHL standings for each division, including which teams make the playoffs. Adam Proteau and THN's team sites reacted to the result.
A deep learning model projected the NHL standings for each division, including which teams make the playoffs. Adam Proteau and THN's team sites reacted to the result.
Welcome to the 2023-24 NHL season. It's time for one more standings projection before the games get underway.
The Hockey News' team sites gathered to analyze a standings projection created by Rachel Doerrie's AI model, 'Kevin.'
'Kevin' is a deep learning model that uses previous seasons of data while bringing in new data from the current season in real-time. It then adjusts to a player's performance level and situation, and after a few games, it makes a player and team's performance over the season more trackable to the original prediction. Rachel Doerrie provides the full explanation of Kevin here, and gives her take on the projections here.
Check out the results below for where the model thinks each team could finish in their division by the end of the season. Hyperlinked on each team is the specific analysis for that team, which includes three keys to the season, the most likely scenarios and the worst-case scenarios.
Adam Proteau also gives his analysis of the projections and whether he thinks anything could change.
Atlantic Division
Click on each team for specific reactions from THN's team sites.
* playoff team
Proteau's Breakdown: The model projects there to be no change to the top four Atlantic teams in 2022-23, although it does alter the projected order of finish, with the Maple Leafs surging from second last season to the top of the Atlantic in 2023-24. Most hockey analysts also expect last year’s Presidents' Trophy winners, the Bruins, will take a step back after losing a slew of veterans due to a salary cap crunch and retirement. But Boston still has enough talent at all three main positions to keep them at or near the top of the division.
Otherwise, the two Florida teams in the Atlantic, the '22-23 Eastern Conference champion Panthers and Lightning (in a wild-card spot), project to be the other two playoff teams coming out of the division. With that said, the up-and-coming Sabres and Senators are considered by the model to be closest to the playoff picture if another team underachieves and misses out on the post-season. And the rebuilding Red Wings and Canadiens round out the remainder of the Atlantic, which will be among the most increasingly competitive divisions in the league.
There are going to be returning playoff teams in the Atlantic, but the potential for new blood at the top half of the division is considerable.
Metropolitan Division
Click on each team for specific reactions from THN's team sites.
* playoff team
Proteau's Breakdown: The Metropolitan Division remains the most competitive division in the NHL, with six of its eight teams having some sort of design on a playoff position. But at the very top of the Metro, the model predicts the same Carolina Hurricanes squad that won the division last year will be back on top in 2023-24.
Below them, the beefed-up Rangers and deep, talented Devils are projected as the Metropolitan’s second and third teams, respectively. It’s hard to argue that the Blueshirts and New Jersey aren’t among the very best teams in the game, never mind in the Metro. All three teams could wind up as the Eastern Conference representative in the Cup final next spring.
In the fourth spot in the Metropolitan, and as one of two Eastern wild-card teams, is the re-jigged Penguins, whose competitive window is well on its way to closing. And after that, two veteran teams in the Islanders and Capitals are projected out of the playoff mix. Finally, the rebuilt Blue Jackets are pegged by the model as the seventh-best team in the division, and the rebuilding Flyers are seen as the Metro’s worst team.
All things considered, it will be a grind and battle just to make the playoffs this season, but the Canes, Rangers and Devils should be atop the division when the regular season is through.
Central Division
Click on each team for specific reactions from THN's team sites.
* playoff team
Proteau's Breakdown: As with the other three divisions, the Central Division clearly separates the top few teams from the rest of the division.
The prediction model has the Avalanche, who finished first overall in the Central last season, to repeat as division champs this year. The Dallas Stars, who finished just one standings point behind the Avs last year, are projected to be the second-best team in the division once again. The Wild, who finished third in the Central last season, are projected to retain that spot in 2023-24.
The model projects the next three spots in the Central to be the Winnipeg Jets (who are expected to be a wild-card playoff team for the second consecutive year), the Nashville Predators (who finished fifth in the Central last season) and the Blues, who finished sixth last year. There is no projected change in the Central standings at all this year, with the Coyotes and Blackhawks projected to finish in seventh and eighth position in the Central, which was the same way they finished in '22-23.
The Predators are projected by the model to be the next-best wild-card contender if someone slips out of the top four in the Central. But the Blues, who added veteran help this summer, could also be close to a playoff berth. Arizona and Chicago, however, are likely to remain a few years off from truly contending for a post-season spot.
Pacific Division
Click on each team for specific reactions from THN's team sites.
* playoff team
Proteau's Breakdown: The model expects the high-octane Oilers to emerge as the Pacific Division’s top team in '23-24. As employers of two of the NHL’s best individual players in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton has no excuses not to be at the top.
Behind them are the defending Cup champions, the Vegas Golden Knights, who are returning virtually the same roster this season, and the Kings, who’ve added a star forward in Pierre-Luc Dubois and remade their goaltending tandem to include veteran Cam Talbot.
In fourth place in the Pacific – and with the first of two projected wild-card playoff berths – is the Calgary Flames, who are under new management and a lineup that no longer includes sniper Tyler Toffoli. The Flames need a rebound season from many players, most notably veteran goalie Jacob Markstrom. But they do have a good supply of talent, and the model takes that into account by placing them in the fourth spot.
The team that finished fourth in the Pacific last year – the Seattle Kraken – are projected to miss out on the post-season this year and finish fifth in the division. We’re not suggesting the Kraken’s first-ever playoff appearance last year was a fluke, but we are saying the Pacific will be more competitive this season, and that could squeeze out Seattle from the playoff picture.
In sixth place are the Canucks, who are aiming for a playoff appearance but likely don’t have the horses to outplay their division rivals. Rounding it out are the rebuilding Ducks and the Sharks. Anaheim and San Jose have been in the early stages of elite asset acquisition, and they’re not there just yet. Another season of pain is probably ahead for both of them.
What Does NHL 24 Think?
On The Hockey News' Gaming site, Rahil Vydelingum dives into franchise mode in NHL 24 to simulate the 2023-24 season and find out the Stanley Cup champions, draft lottery winners and individual award winners. While many teams are closer to the Kevin model's projection, others are the complete opposite during different points in the season (Montreal fans, take notice). Check out the full video there.