Philadelphia’s massive offer sheet for Leo Carlsson forces a high-stakes gamble in Anaheim, weighing a franchise centerpiece against cap flexibility and a potential blockbuster trade-based alternative.
On Friday, the Philadelphia Flyers and Anaheim Ducks franchise center Leo Carlsson shook the foundation of the NHL when the Flyers signed Carlsson to a five-year, $18 million AAV offer sheet.
With a bonus-heavy structure and a no-move clause in the final year of the contract, it was designed by Flyers general manager Daniel Briere to make the decision on whether or not to match as difficult as possible for Ducks GM Pat Verbeek.
The Ducks have until July 10 to decide if they want to match and retain Carlsson with the exact contract that was agreed upon or let him leave for Philadelphia in exchange for four first-round picks as compensation.
The Flyers are clearly desperate for a top center, and following a season where they made the playoffs and advanced to the second round, they see this as one of the only avenues to acquire one.
It appears to be widely agreed upon that Carlsson isn’t worth $18 million against the salary cap per season, but it’s also widely agreed upon that he’s worth more than four (likely) late first-round picks. Adding Carlsson to a playoff roster will only increase the likelihood that Philadelphia’s next four first-round picks will land near the end of the round.
If matched, the Ducks will have just $17.1 million (projected) in cap space to sign three more RFAs to new contracts: 40-goal scoring Cutter Gauthier, top-four defenseman Pavel Mintyukov, and NHL defenseman Tyson Hinds. If the Ducks match and retain Carlsson, one can speculate that Gauthier will use Carlsson’s number as a comparable.
With more projected high-profile Ducks RFAs on the horizon in the form of Beckett Sennecke, Roger McQueen, Tristan Luneau, etc, keeping Carlsson could have lasting negative ripple effects throughout the Ducks’ cap structure. Of course, losing him could also have lasting, more significant negative ripple effects.
Talent such as Carlsson can typically only be acquired at the top of the NHL Draft, as he represents the hardest piece to attain for rebuilding NHL teams, is the product of a franchise hitting rock bottom, and the embodiment of hope on the other side.
Now time for the big question: Is Leo Carlsson (2nd overall in 2023), face of Swedish hockey, the Ducks franchise center, and the most talented prospect in team history, worth severely damaging the team’s salary structure for the next five years, or is having $35 million in cap space, four extra first-round picks, and a more balanced cap sheet the more favorable route?
James Guillory-Imagn ImagesBut wait, could there be a third option?
Most speculating on the side of the Ducks not matching are suggesting they could use the added draft capital in subsequent deals to acquire talent elsewhere to add to their roster. However, there may be another route.
The most recent successful offer sheet signing occurred in the summer of 2024, when the St. Louis Blues signed then-Edmonton Oilers RFAs Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg to simultaneous offer sheets, equating to a second and third-round draft pick as compensation.
The Oilers could have matched one or both of the offer sheets, but likely would have had to perform some gymnastics on their cap sheet to do so. Instead, they declined to match either, and seemingly as additional compensation and incentive to not match, they made a side deal with the Blues to acquire an additional third-round pick and a prospect (Paul Fischer) in exchange for “future considerations.”
Could this present a third option for the Ducks? Again, if Carlsson is worth less than $18 million AAV but more than four first-round picks, is there a side deal that could be agreed upon between them and the Flyers to make up the difference in value between Leo Carlsson and the picks?
Unfortunately, in this scenario, the Ducks would lose out on their franchise center, but better value could be recouped for doing so. The value difference between Carlsson and four late firsts would be left up to the respective front offices, but the Flyers do have pieces that could incentivize the Ducks not to match.
Whether they match or not, the Ducks, having parted ways with five roster players this offseason, are likely going to suffer a step back in 2026-27 from their prior season, which saw them finish third in the Pacific Division, defeat the defending Western Conference Champion Oilers in the first round, and take the eventual 2026 Western Conference Champion Vegas Golden Knights to six games in the second round.
Core Flyers pieces like Travis Konecny, Porter Martone, Tyson Foerster, and Travis Sanheim are likely off the table for the Ducks in a scenario such as this one, as are current RFAs Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale (for obvious reasons).
However, Philadelphia has appealing roster players, draft picks, and prospects in their pipeline that could be used to incentivize Anaheim not to match Carlsson’ OS. Could some combination of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 2027 first-round pick (owned by the Flyers), Alex Bump (22), Jett Luchenko (19), Denver Barkey (21), and Rasmus Ristolainen (31) provide enough value to offset the compensation gap?
After a successful rookie season in 2024-25, forward Matvei Michkov had a disappointing sophomore season with the Flyers, scoring 51 points (20-31=50) in 81 games and spending some time in the press box as a healthy scratch during Philadelphia’s playoff run to the second round. Could he be an option in a side deal like this?
Briere and the Flyers backed Verbeek and the Ducks into a tough corner by signing Leo Carlsson to this historic offer sheet. By exploring a creative option akin to this, Verbeek could throw the ball back into Briere’s court and test how badly he wants to add a potential superstar center to the Flyers’ depth chart.
NHL general managers have become increasingly creative when constructing their rosters in attempts to ice sustainably competitive hockey teams. Just how creative can Verbeek’s response be? Could he potentially soften the blow and acquire additional pieces to the four first-round picks? We’ll soon find out.
