A dive into the underlying numbers from Detroit's 4-0 loss to the Panthers Saturday night
A dive into the underlying numbers from Detroit's 4-0 loss to the Panthers Saturday night
Last night, the Red Wings fell 4-0 in a tempestuous game to the NHL-leading Florida Panthers at Little Caesars Arena. Though the final score was lopsided, for most of the afternoon, it was a hard fought, competitive game. For a clearer sense of where things went awry, let's take a look at the underlying numbers:
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals (per MoneyPuck), the Panthers bested Detroit 5.61-2.02, but that figure is a bit misleading as Florida ran away with the game in the back half of the third when the outcome was no longer in doubt.
After the first, Detroit trailed just 0.767-0.98 by xG. After the second, it was 1.387-2.576. Roughly halfway through the third, it was still only 1.565-3.338. In fact, by five-on-five xG (also per MoneyPuck), the Red Wings beat the Panthers 1.61-1.44. All of this is to say that Detroit didn't play poorly by any means, especially not during the first two periods. However, Florida dominated the special teams battle with two power play goals while the Red Wings were 0/5 on the man advantage. That was the biggest difference in the game.
-Per Natural Stat Trick's five-on-five metrics, Detroit wasn't exactly dominant, but they were more than solid at even strength. The Red Wings earned a 42.31% CorsiFor, a 37.14% share of scoring chances, a 77.78% share of high-danger chances, and a 50.32% share of expected goals. In other words, Detroit didn't thrive on volume, but they did create the lion's share of high-quality chances Saturday afternoon; they just weren't able to turn those into actual goals.
So, while the sense that the Red Wings lost their composure as the game progressed and the final scoreline are both discouraging, there is also reasonable cause for encouragement coming out of this game. Against the best team in the NHL and current Stanley Cup favorites, Detroit more than held its own at five-on-five. However, a lack of special teams execution (and down the stretch a lack of level-headedness) created a lopsided result. It wasn't enough to win yesterday, but that performance is one that suggests a team that can hang around and compete admirably against the league's current gold standard.
Individual Impacts
-The Red Wings did a lot of experimenting with line combinations last night, particularly as the game progressed and they continued to struggle to pierce Florida's defensive shell. No forward line played more than 5:21 together at five-on-five.
Arguably Detroit's best forward unit yesterday was the fourth line of Robby Fabbri, Christian Fischer, and Daniel Sprong. In 4:18 together at five-on-five, they put together 0.354 xG for compared to just 0.133 against, though neither team found an actual goal in those minutes.
Meanwhile, the top line of Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat, and Dylan Larkin did solid work in play-driving and had some quality looks but just couldn't convert. That trio played 5:21 at five-a-side, earning 0.113 xG for compared to 0.048 xG against. That's not an enormous volume of offense by any means, but it does include a Kane breakaway. Still, in keeping with the game's theme, it wasn't enough to find a breakthrough.
-Interestingly, it wasn't the Panthers superstars who found success at five-on-five. The Aleksander Barkov-driven top line was quiet, and the Matthew Tkachuk-driven second line created some offense but nothing remarkable. Instead, Florida's third line of Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell, and Evan Rodrigues was their best by far at five-a-side. That unit found both of the Ice Cats' five-on-five goals and earned a remarkable 87.4% on-ice xG share in 7:04 together.
-On the back end, yesterday's game was unusual in that Jake Walman and Moritz Seider's pairing lagged about two-and-a-half minutes behind the other two Detroit D pairs by five-on-five ice time. Walman-Seider played 8:51 last night, earning an 0.273-0.213 edge in xG with neither side finding an actual goal in those minutes.
Jeff Petry and Ben Chiarot did well for themselves in terms of play-driving, but they conceded a goal. In 11:24 together at five-a-side, they earned an 0.785-0.475 edge by xG. Finally, Olli Maatta and Shayne Gostisbehere did not have an easy night on Detroit's third pair. In 11:16 at five-on-five, they were out-chanced 0.059-0.353, though they did manage to avoid conceding a goal.
-Finally, in net, this wasn't the best of Alex Lyon, but the numbers suggest he held up well to a difficult workload. Lyon made 33 saves on 37 shots for a less than stellar .892 save percentage. However, since he faced 5.61 xG on that 37 shots, he actually did well to only yield four, which amounts to a 1.61 Goals Saved Above Expected.
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