The Senators were a noticeably better team in the second half of Game 2 after some in-game line shuffling by Travis Green.
If the Ottawa Senators are going to claw their way back into their first-round matchup with the Carolina Hurricanes, it begins with finding an answer for neutralizing Logan Stankoven’s line.
Through the first two games of the series, the combination of Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake has dominated.
According to Evolving-Hockey, in the 28 minutes and 15 seconds of five-on-five ice time that this line has had together, the Hurricanes have generated 65.00 percent of the shots (CF%), 67.86 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), and 77.89 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) while outscoring the Senators two goals to none.
Natural Stat Trick’s ‘With or Without’ data shows that when that line has not been on the ice, the Hurricanes’ metrics drop considerably.
When the Stankoven line is not on the ice at five-on-five, the Hurricanes have only generated 52.38 percent of the shots (CF%), 50.70 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), and 45.04 percent of the expected goals (xGF%), while outscoring the Senators two goals to one.
Here is how the Hurricanes have fared at five-on-five by line:
Svechnikov-Aho-Jarvis: 43.20 CF%, 39.86 SF%, 27.96 xGF%
Ehlers-Staal-Martinook: 59.87 CF%, 69.22 SF%, 64.34 xGF%
Robinson-Jankowski-Carrier: 50.31 CF%, 21.82 SF%, 38.10 xGF%
The Stankoven and Staal lines have given the Senators problems, and it is reflected in their metrics. When they are on the ice, the play is heavily tilted in Ottawa’s defensive zone with the Canes outshooting and outchancing the Senators by a large margin.
Conversely, here is how the Senators’ traditional four lines have fared in the series thus far:
Batherson-Stützle: 39.92 CF%, 26.31 SF%, 32.73 xGF%
Tkachuk-Cozens-Greig: 45.15 CF%, 38.32 SF%, 46.1 xGF%
Cousins-Pinto-Amadio: 23.49 CF%, 19.88 SF%, 7.89 xGF%
Foegele-Eller-Zetterlund: 48.64 CF%, 74.00 SF%, 76.67 xGF%
With the exception of the Senators’ fourth line, which plays significantly fewer minutes than the others, the Senators have not executed well enough, especially early in games.
Over the course of the series, however, we have begun to see Travis Green and his coaching staff make adjustments to their lines.
During game two, Travis Green eventually frontloaded the team’s top line, putting together the combination of Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle and Drake Batherson.
Although they were on the ice for the eventual game-winner in double overtime, their underlying metrics were strong.
Tkachuk-Stützle-Batherson: 58.18 CF%, 64.92 SF%, 70.86 xGF%
It remains to be seen how coach Green will deploy his lines in game two, and there are always concerns that frontloading the first line could leave others thin. There is no question that Tkachuk’s presence alongside Dylan Cozens has optimized the Senators’ second line, giving it added depth and size. Throughout the season, that size created matchup problems for the opposition, and teams had a challenging time dealing with this line down low, where they controlled the cycle game.
In this series, the cycle game for the second line has not had a chance to get going because of the Senators’ struggles breaking the puck out effectively. By spending too much time within the defensive zone, by the time the puck is transitioned out, the forwards are too tired to have much of an offensive push.
With the return to home ice, Ottawa will benefit from having last change, which will allow Green to opportunistically deploy that front-loaded top line.
The easiest change that can be made is the one to the third line.
The Senators generated 50.39 percent of the shots (CF%), 55.76 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), and 59.10 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) when the line of Cousins-Pinto-Amadio was on the ice. Despite having one of the lowest offensive zone start percentages in the league (33.88%). During the postseason, however, this line has been caved.
When Warren Foegele was acquired from Los Angeles at the trade deadline, he, like Fabian Zetterlund the year before, was integrated slowly. He began his tenure on the fourth line and has not really moved off that line over the past several weeks. During games one and two, however, Foegele has moved up to the third line, replacing Nick Cousins.
That simple switch has paid dividends.
Against a fast and skilled Carolina squad, Foegele’s speed and size have been a welcome addition, and the metrics reflect that.
In approximately 11 minutes of five-on-five ice time, the line of Foegele-Pinto-Amadio has generated 64.58 percent of the shots (CF%), 51.41 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), but only 42.71 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). Although the xGF% is low, it is reasonable to assume that over time, that number will climb if the Senators can maintain a sizeable edge in their shot metrics. Quantity will hopefully eventually turn into quality.
The other development that will benefit the Senators is the highly anticipated return of defencemen Tyler Kleven and Artem Zub. Kleven missed the first two games with a jaw injury, but has been practicing with the team. Over the last week, he has progressed from wearing a non-contact jersey to a regular one.
Zub only played seven minutes and 44 seconds in the game, leaving the game with a lower-body injury after hitting Carolina forward Seth Jarvis. Although his presence was labelled as a game-time decision ahead of game two, the Russian defenceman ultimately did not dress.
The Senators will skate on Wednesday morning, so that should provide more clarity on the status of these two defencemen. If they participate and appear ready to rejoin the lineup, it will be a huge boost to this blue line.
That is not meant to disrespect players like Nik Matinpalo, who was excellent on Monday, or Dennis Gilbert and Lassi Thomson, but these players were unexpectedly pressed into action and competed as best as they could. It is just that these players are more talented and should help address the Senators’ issue of retrieving pucks and exiting the zone cleanly.
It was impressive that the Senators’ first two games were as tightly contested as they were, but with small tweaks, home ice advantage, and the return of some valuable defencemen, I expect the best version of the Senators to show up in games three and four.
Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News
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