After Eighth Straight Loss, Where Do The Penguins Go From Here?

With every passing game, folks are waiting to see the Pittsburgh Penguins snap out of whatever malaise they find themselves in. 

With yet another loss - this one against the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday in the first of a home-and-home back-to-back - they clearly have not found a way out of it. And it doesn't seem like any solution is in sight, either. 

Going into the month of December, the Penguins were 12-7-5, and they won their first two games of the month against the Philadelphia Flyers and Tampa Bay Lightning. Since then, they have dropped seven straight games, with four of those in regulation and four in overtime. 

They still have games in hand on almost every team above them in the standings, but so does everyone else around them in the standings. And, with the way they are playing, those one to three games in hand mean less and less with each loss. They end Saturday just three points ahead of the Columbus Blue Jackets for last place in the Eastern Conference, and they are now four points out of the final wild card spot - a place they found themselves in just a week ago.

At this juncture, it seems pointless to keep asking what the Penguins can do to fix their situation. This hasn't been a gradual downward spiral. No, this has been an utter freefall, and it's almost unreal when considering that 33 of the 34 teams - like the Penguins - who have finished the month of October 8-2-2 have made the playoffs.

There were early warning signs that the start may have been a bit of a mirage. Team goaltending and shooting percentage (PDO) were high to begin with, and they have since fallen off. But even as those numbers began to balance out, the Penguins were still middle-of-the-pack from a five-on-five analytical standpoint, and their special teams were the best in the league.

All in all - even if they were never going to be the team they were in October - there is still a lot to indicate that this team should not be losing or performing the way that it is right now. They're better than this. And they know they're better than this. 

But, results are results. And the Penguins aren't getting them right now. They're at a juncture in their season where their performance in the immediacy is going to dictate what direction the team is going to take for the rest of this season and beyond. 

So, what now? Where do the Penguins go from here?

Well, there are some things in the "now" that need addressed. The NHL holiday roster freeze took effect Friday and runs through Dec. 28, so the Penguins can only have roster movement in the form of IR transactions and emergency recalls during that time. They play three more games in that time. 

And there are also more long-term things, too, that intersect with the short-term focus. 

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Special teams are becoming less special

A week ago, the Penguins had a top-five penalty kill unit. After the 4-0 shutout loss to Montreal?

They're ranked 18th. 

The unit has surrendered eight goals in the last six games, and that almost directly correlates with the loss of Blake Lizotte to injured reserve seven games ago. Lizotte is, without a doubt, the Penguins' best penalty-killer, and he has arguably been their best bottom-six forward this season. They are sorely missing him on the PK, in defensive zone situations, and in six-on-five situations, which have also been a disaster lately. But he is not expected back until after the holiday, so the Penguins need to get back to the aggressive approach they were taking with him in the lineup.

As for the power play? Even that has slid in recent games - again, almost directly correlated with the loss of Evgeni Malkin eight games ago. The unit has dipped below 30 percent for the first time this season, and it is now ranked third in the league after spending almost the entirety of the season at the top of the league. It is just six for its last 31 (19.4 percent), and it has surrendered two shorthanded goals in that time. 

The Penguins need to get back to basics on both units, and they need to get there fast. They are clearly more than capable, but injuries have killed them on both units.

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No trades right now... but what if this continues past roster freeze?

Obviously, the Penguins already made a big trade when they sent forward Sam Poulin and Tristan Jarry - their best-performing goaltender of the season - to the Edmonton Oilers on Dec. 12 in exchange for goaltender Stuart Skinner, defenseman Brett Kulak, and a 2029 second-round pick. Clearly, the Penguins have struggled mightily since then. 

But there are still other prominent names on the board. And with each loss, their time in Pittsburgh becomes less secure. 

Erik Karlsson has been one of the few players still performing relatively well through this stretch, and he is outpacing both of his previous seasons with the Penguins point-wise. He is also - generally speaking - playing better defensive hockey this season. With just one year remaining on his contract that the Penguins owe $10 million on - and with all three of their retention slots open - he is a clear candidate to be moved well in advance of the deadline if things continue to go south. 

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And then, there is Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell. Rust's production - 12 goals and 28 points in 32 games - may still be enough to entice a team to give up a pretty good package for him. But his defensive play has been abysmal this season, and that won't go entirely unnoticed by potential suitors. 

As for Rakell? His month and a half on injured reserve didn't do him or his trade value any favors, as he has three goals and 10 points in 14 games but no goals in his five games since returning to the lineup. There is still time for Rakell to gain traction, but it's unclear where he'll be deployed in the lineup going forward, even with Malkin back in the picture. 

A month ago, folks were talking about all three players still being in Pittsburgh by season's end. Now, the conversation has shifted back to the one being had prior to the start of the season: Will any of them remain by season's end?

If the Penguins can't turn things around in quick fashion, there's a good chance at least two of the three won't. And GM/POHO Kyle Dubas has stressed that, while expectations for this season have been elevated because of what the team showed early on, the long-term plan cannot be compromised.

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Is going young or sticking with underperforming vets more conducive to losing?

Truthfully, there really isn't an easy answer for this question. And if the Penguins continue to fall, it will be interesting to see how they handle this dilemma. 

There is a widely held assumption that trimming underperforming veterans off the roster - names such as Kevin Hayes, Danton Heinen, Connor Clifton, and Ryan Graves - in favor of younger players like Tristan Broz, Avery Hayes, Harrison Brunicke, and Owen Pickering would suddenly give the Penguins a jolt and, potentially, return better results. 

While this is a nice idea in theory, that's not necessarily going to play out in practice. 

For one, getting whatever value the team can out of said veterans is always the preferred route to waivers or losing them for nothing by season's end. And, if the team isn't winning, it doesn't necessarily hurt a tanking strategy to simply keep throwing them back out there. 

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However, giving the kids some runway could - realistically - end in the same result. The truth about youth movements is that they're often messy. There are going to be players - such as Ben Kindel - who outperform expectations and can help more immediately than others. 

But, more often than not, that youth needs adjustment time. Rutger McGroarty could use some top-six minutes to see how his game develops. Ville Koivunen could, perhaps, use the same thing. Broz has played in one NHL game and would need time to marinate in a bottom-six role. Avery Hayes - although registering six goals and 11 points in his last 11 AHL games - will need much of the same. 

And Brunicke and Pickering? Brunicke is probably a bit further along than Pickering at this point, despite being a teenager - and he was loaned to Team Canada for the World Junior Championship by the Penguins. But there is still a lot of defensive work for him to do. And Pickering is reaching a point where he probably has to begin showing signs of progress at the NHL level, even if they are small steps. 

Then, there is the goaltending situation, as Arturs Silovs - still just 24 years old - has lost seven straight games while Sergei Murashov and Joel Blomqvist continue to light up the AHL with save percentages of .941 and .935, respectively. However, as good as they've been, they're both unproven in their NHL minutes up to this point. 

The thing to remember with icing the "kids" is that there are going to be mistakes and growing pains. And not every prospect is going to pan out. The Penguins could, quite possibly, be a lesser team with all the kids replacing those vets in the lineup. 

But that's the thing: There comes a point when watching the kids make the mistakes and plummet the season is much more palatable than watching those veterans do similar kinds of things.

The Penguins will have some roster decisions to make on the horizon - namely the Jan. 3 40-game deadline for Kindel and Brunicke, where the Penguins lose a year of restricted free agency should they remain on the NHL roster - and it should say a lot about where they believe they're at in terms of their season and their longer-term outlook with the rebuild. If they believe some of these prospects can help more immediately, they should be on the roster.

But, if not, they may just ride it out with their veterans until at least the trade deadline - for better or for worse.

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