What Would It Take For Penguins To Land 3 'Big Fish' In Trade Market?

When Pittsburgh Penguins' general manager and president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas put out a "sales pitch" of sorts to talented 20-somethings in his season-ending press conference on May 12, naturally, it got people talking.

After admitting that his team still had a "long way to go" to match the likes of the Carolina Hurricanes - the gold standard in the Metropolitan Division - he explained that they needed difference-makers in that age range to reach that level. 

“I think what we really lack are those players in their later 20s that are really true difference makers. Or mid-20s, late 20s, that are true difference makers," Dubas said.

Dubas also suggested that Pittsburgh should be a favorable destination for such players - and doubled down on that - before he went on to reaffirm that he and the Penguins will “investigate all those [players] as they go into the summer.” While he did mention acquiring players similar to the likes of Egor Chinakhov, who broke out for 18 goals and 36 points in 43 games after being traded from Columbus to Pittsburgh in late-December, there’s also the possibility that he was thinking a bit higher in terms of impact names. 

"I think if we're going to take really big steps next year that [are] sustainable, it's going to be by using the cap space that we have, but [also] the assets that we have, the draft picks, the prospects, etc, to go and acquire somebody," Dubas said. "Is that going to be possible? We're sure going to find out. But I'm being open with you because that's the path ahead.”

So, if Dubas is truly considering big-game hunting this summer, let’s go big.

As a disclaimer, it typically takes a lot for bigger names to actually be on the market, and it’s also going to take a lot - a whole lot - for the Penguins to be in on those names if they are, especially in a rising-cap environment. Players like Brayden Schenn and Justin Faulk - talented but aging players - fetched first-round picks plus roster and prospect talent at the deadline. 

But some of the NHL’s most elite players are at that level for a reason, and the cost will be much steeper than that. So, if some of these acquisition costs seem like overpays, well, that’s probably because they are. 

With the lack of true blue-chip prospects, the Penguins would have to send a lot the other way in any “big fish” trade scenario. With that, what would it - theoretically - cost to acquire who could be three of the biggest players not named Connor McDavid (at least, not yet) on the market this summer?

Let's get this one out of the way because Matthews would, most certainly, cost more than any big name potentially on the market this summer - assuming McDavid isn’t on it. 

And should Matthews become available, a bidding war like few others would ensue.

The 28-year-old forward has a resume that speaks for itself, as he has notched two 60-plus goal seasons, has scored 30 or more goals in nine of his 10 NHL seasons, has scored 40 or more six times, and has 428 goals and 780 points in 679 games. He is also currently sixth all-time in goals-per-game at .621, which is outpacing all-time goals leader Alex Ovechkin at .591.

Injuries are the primary reason he’s very unlikely to beat Ovechkin’s goal record - whatever it ends up being - and they have been a concern for him throughout his career, as he plays a gritty game despite his high-level skill, and he’s only played five seasons of 70 or more games. The other thing that may drive down his value a bit is the fact that his contract - which pays him $13.25 million annually through the end of 2027-28 - has a full no-movement clause, meaning Matthews controls if he goes and where he goes. 

That said, we’re talking about someone who is legitimately one of the greatest goal-scorers of all-time. 

In order for the Penguins to have any kind of shot at Matthews, they would have to be willing to surrender pretty much anything. Rust seems like a given in this deal, as Toronto could either keep him or flip him again for a first-round pick and more if they choose to tear it down (which is likely if Matthews departs). There could even be a third team involved for the Rust portion of it. 

And if the Penguins are married to keeping Kindel, well, they’re going to have to sacrifice at least two of their next-best prospects in Brunicke and Zonnon. Heck, Murashov might even be a requirement over Blomqvist, as Toronto never has any shortage of goaltending needs. 

So, acquiring him will cost an arm and a leg - and rightfully so - and even this proposal could fall short. However, that doesn’t mean that the Penguins are primed to even target someone like this quite yet, especially since they’re still in the middle of their rebuild and are banking on some of their current assets to pan out. 

Still, if Matthews is available, Dubas - like every other GM - should be picking up the phone to poke around. He and Matthews have a good relationship, and he’s a game-changing superstar worth paying up for. 

Thomas may not be quite on the same level as Matthews. But, a few tiers below Matthews is still a pretty darn good player.

It’s not as if first-line centers grow on trees and become available very often. But that’s exactly what was rumored to happen prior to the trade deadline, when the Blues were reportedly engaging on Thomas.

And one of the teams rumored to be in on Thomas was the Penguins, with the apparent asking price involving Kindel, per Elliotte Friedman on his '32 Thoughts' podcast. Of course, Kindel wouldn’t have been the only piece headed the other way, though, as acquiring first-line centers doesn’t come cheap. Plus, Thomas’s team-friendly salary of $8.125 million through 2030-31 is a coveted commodity.

Since the Blues aren’t exactly in teardown mode quite yet, they’ll probably want NHL or near-ready NHL talent in return. Rust fits the bill as a veteran top-line scoring replacement on the cheap, but St. Louis also needs right defensemen and centers, making the ask of Brunicke and someone like Broz reasonable. And if that, plus the picks, can’t get a deal across the finish line, the Penguins could maybe add some salary retention for Rust or an additional pick or NHL roster player with some upside like an Avery Hayes or Elmer Soderblom.

However, Dubas and the Penguins should tread carefully here. Sure, Matthews is a talent worth selling the farm for, but is Thomas? Thomas is a solid first-line center, and he will be for at least another handful of years. But his career production doesn’t necessarily warrant the Penguins giving up more than one of their very best prospects, plus all that draft capital. 

The Blues have all the time in the world, too, even if Thomas has a no-trade clause, so they can drive up the price however much they’d like to. Again, the Penguins should absolutely be in on Thomas if he’s still available since he helps a lot in the near-term, but they shouldn’t overpay significantly to win a bidding war here.

If you're noticing a pattern here, yes, the Penguins - since they, again, don't have any bona fide "blue chip" prospects - would need to keep tacking on extra players in order to get a deal for a superstar player across the finish line.

And Robertson - a pending-RFA superstar - is an interesting case.

First thing’s first: Robertson is probably not going anywhere, as Dallas would, quite frankly, be crazy to let a player of his caliber get away, especially since they’re one of the league’s best teams in win-now mode. Folks are more likely to see names like Tyler Seguin, Matt Duchene, Roope Hintz, Mavrik Bourque, and even Esa Lindell get jettisoned before the 26-year-old Robertson would. 

But, the reality is that Dallas is cap-strapped, as they are only projected to have $10.99 million in cap this summer, according to PuckPedia. If they sign Robertson, they’d still have to shed some bigger salaries and fill out the rest of their roster, which is easier said than done.

So, if he is, somehow, on the way out, Dubas should be breaking through the door to acquire one of the league’s best wingers.

Rakell, 33, makes sense here. He may not be a three-time 40-goal scorer like Robertson, but he is a three-time 30-goal scorer, and he has scored at a respectable point-per-game rate for the past two seasons and can man the middle. He would be a nice short-term solution in terms of a scoring stopgap for losing Robertson, and he’s on a team-friendly deal at $5 million for two more years. If there’s salary retention involved, that helps Dallas even more. 

McGroarty and Pickering are also cheap, NHL-ready-as-can-be options with upside that could help them in both the short- and long-term. Plus, a scorer like Horcoff - who would be a little farther off in terms of readiness - is a promising piece for their future, and they’d be fairly compensated in terms of draft capital, too, that they can either flip for more talent or keep to draft talent. 

If the price is driven up, the Penguins can offer another mid-late pick. They can offer to take on another salary dump from Dallas to free up even more space, too, which would likely be part of any deal for Robertson. There is flexibility in how they can build a package here, which works to their advantage. Robertson should command a fair bit more than what Jake Guentzel did two years ago, so this seems pretty reasonable as far as acquisition cost, especially since the Penguins will want a sign-then-trade in this case. 

Robertson is the one superstar who makes sense for a lot of reasons, and his acquisition cost shouldn’t be quite as high in terms of asset value as the other two, since centers come at a premium and since he is an RFA. It would cost a lot, but he’s probably the most realistic “big fish” on this list, should he hit the market.

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