Following the Calgary Flames' loss to the Avalanche, the Toronto Maple Leafs are now locked into the fifth or sixth best lottery odds, leaving the fate of their top-5 protected 2026 first-round pick hanging in the balance.
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ chances of retaining their first-round selection at the 2026 NHL Draft took another difficult turn on Tuesday night. The Colorado Avalanche defeated the Calgary Flames 3-1, eliminating any chance for the Maple Leafs to finish with fewer points than the Flames in the overall NHL standings.
As a result, the Leafs will finish with either the fifth or sixth worst record in 2025-26. That spot will determine their chances at the NHL Draft lottery coming up on May 5. The lottery will determine not only where the Leafs will pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, but whether they will have a selection at all.
The Maple Leafs dealt the pick to the Boston Bruins, along with forward prospect Fraser Minten, in exchange for veteran defenseman Brandon Carlo in March of 2025. However, the pick is top-5 protected. This ensures the Leafs keep the selection if it remains in that range following the lottery results.
The Maple Leafs visit the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre on Wednesday for their final game of the season. They currently hold a 32-35-14 record with 78 points and one game remaining. Meanwhile, the Seattle Kraken have two games left with a 34-35-11 record and 79 points. With Seattle holding the first tiebreaker over the Leafs, Toronto has a high likelihood of staying in the No. 5 position heading into the lottery—provided they do not pick up a win in Ottawa. If Toronto wins, they will need Seattle to pick up at least one point in their remaining two games to maintain that position.
Under the current lottery format, a team entering with the No. 5 best chances has just a 41.9 percent chance of picking in the top-5. That number is reduced to 15.4 percent if the Leafs enter the lottery in the No. 6 spot.