If the Vancouver Canucks can stay out of the box, they should be able to beat the Edmonton Oilers in the second round.
If the Vancouver Canucks can stay out of the box, they should be able to beat the Edmonton Oilers in the second round.
Heading into the second round, most analysts believe the Vancouver Canucks don't have a shot at beating the Edmonton Oilers. While the Oilers are a strong team, they do have one major flaw, which is their play at five-on-five. If the Canucks can stay out of the box and keep most of the play at five-on-five, they should be able to defeat and move on to the Western Conference Final.
The best way to show the difference between these two teams is to compare them using rates per 60. This allows for a better visual than using raw numbers. Below is a chart of how Vancouver and Edmonton rank among the 16 playoff teams according to Natural Stat Trick.
One other part of the analytics that sticks out is the Oilers' high shooting percentage. At five-on-five, Edmonton's shooting percentage is 11.21%, which is the highest of any team. For reference, the Canucks finished as the top regular season team at 10.61%. Another interesting note is that Stuart Skinner has struggled at five-on-five in the postseason, as his .902 save percentage ranks 15th out of 19 goaltenders who played at least 100 minutes. Skinner also has a goals saved above expected of -2.17, which ranks 16 of the 19 goaltenders who played over 100 five-on-five minutes. While Skinner did get better as the Oilers series progressed against the Kings, his overall analytics show that he can be a liability in the net at five-on-five.
As for Artūrs Šilovs, he has been a brick wall at five-on-five. In three games, he has a .969 save percentage and a goals saved above expected for of 3.19. While some point to his lack of experience, that simply isn't the case, as he has been a star for Latvia and helped capture the country's first-ever medal at last year's World Championship. Just like Skinner, Šilovs has also got better throughout the series, which culminated in a 1-0 shutout during Game 6. While there are some questions surrounding what Šilovs may look like as the series goes on, the Latvian goaltender has proven he is ready for the challenge and has backed that claim up with strong play this postseason.
While you can't ignore how dangerous Edmonton's power play is, the Oilers have shown they do have holes when playing at five-on-five. They gave up a lot of chances to the L.A. Kings, and while they scored 12 five-on-five goals, they also gave up 12. Edmonton's top player also struggled to produce at five-on-five, with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl combining for six points. Ultimately, the data shows that without the power play, this is a very balanced and one Vancouver should be able to take if the majority of the series is played at five on five.
As mentioned, power plays will play a massive role in this series, but it shouldn't be a forgone conclusion that Edmonton will light up Vancouver. While the Oilers did finish with 45% power play against the Kings, the Canucks were one of the strongest teams on the penalty kill, killing 20 of 22 penalties which included 21 seconds of five-on-three. In the end, if Vancouver can play a disciplined game and keep their defensive structure intact, they should be able not just to frustrate Edmonton's top players but also pull off what many would call an upset.
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