The Philadelphia Flyers swung and missed on Leo Carlsson with their offer sheet. They have limited desirable options to upgrade their No. 1 center now. Will they make the playoffs now?
After the Anaheim Ducks made the no-brainer decision to match the Philadelphia Flyers' offer sheet for Leo Carlsson, they put GM Daniel Briere in a tough spot.
Will Philly have a clear No. 1 center by October? All signs currently point to "no."
The Flyers certainly have a lot of cap space to work with now — the most in the NHL at nearly $29.6 million — but few ways to spend it that come close to matching what Carlsson would have provided them if Anaheim had let him walk.
While it was a very good gamble, it was never going to work.
Instead, Philadelphia may be forced to go into the season with Christian Dvorak as its No. 1 center yet again, though he only played about 18:30 per game this past season.
They could, theoretically, try Trevor Zegras (who still needs a new contract) there instead, since he led the team's forwards in total ice time last season, but he's a much more effective scoring threat from the wing and not nearly as much of a defensive liability.
So the bet on adding a 21-year-old center who scored almost 30 goals last season was a good one, and probably a clear sign the Flyers don't want to go through last year's experiment once again.
Do they have anywhere else they could turn? If they're willing to part with at least some of the four first-round picks they would have given up for Carlsson, and maybe some other stuff, the answer is probably "yes." But they might not love their options.
The mind leaps first to Dylan Larkin, who wants to go to a winner.
However, Larkin has full control over his destination and has kept his prospective landing spots limited: reportedly just four teams, newly expanded to include Dallas on the pre-existing options of Florida, Minnesota and Vegas.
The Flyers are not in that class of team, especially because Larkin has correctly deduced that any team on which he is the No. 1 center is not competitive for anything of note. As evidence of that, I would point you toward the fact that the Red Wings have the longest playoff drought in the league due, in no small part, to his status as their best center.
The average annual value on Larkin's contract, just $8.7 million for another five years, definitely makes him worth pursuing if only because it adds critical depth up the middle and provides future financial flexibility to add guys who can play in front of him. But if he doesn't want to go there, it's a non-starter.
There are also reports out of Seattle that the Kraken are willing to consider trading Shane Wright, who recently requested a change of scenery.
The Kraken aren't willing to move him for the sake of doing so, but the price for a 22-year-old forward coming off a 12-goal, 27-point season certainly isn't close to what Carlsson or Larkin would fetch.
The question, then, is whether Philly is willing to make a move for potential. There's little doubt Wright is an NHL-quality forward, but the Flyers need to assess whether he, like Zegras, might just be better on the wing, and how high his ceiling is. In all likelihood, he's not that kind of a difference-maker.
There may be a few more potential No. 2 centers out there on the trade market this summer — Pavel Zacha, Elias Pettersson, maybe Tomas Hertl — who also aren't addressing the central issue Carlsson would have. Pettersson might if it works as a change-of-scenery move, but he's returning to playing with his old coach in Vancouver, who wasn't exactly getting a ton out of him in the first place.
And the UFA market won't help, either.
Every forward out there as of July 9 who is remotely worth signing for anything approaching a top-six roster spot is a winger.
The top-scoring center left on the board at this late date is Philipp Kurashev, whom the San Jose Sharks opted not to qualify after he recorded seven goals and 20 points in 43 games.
So let's just accept that the Flyers are entering another season without a No. 1 center.
That's OK, right? Lots of returning young talent that can take a step, a full season of Porter Martone, more familiarity with Rick Tocchet's systems, etc.
Well, not so fast.
The Flyers relied heavily on overtime and the shootout, going 16-for-28 past regulation.
They weren't exactly a strong 5-on-5 team.
They got outrageous goaltending from career 1B Dan Vladar, who had a .906 save percentage and 13.8 goals saved above expected, versus his previous career stats of .895 and minus-25.7.
Philadelphia made the playoffs despite having the worst power play in the league (15.7 percent) and 11th-worst penalty kill (77.6 percent).
Obviously, with their offensive talent, the special teams can improve in some ways, but if Vladar returns to his career norms, they could get much worse in others. Even with a No. 1 center, there would still be roster problems.
Is this a playoff team? Feels like it might be a 50-50 call right now. Which isn't fun or exciting — or, probably, good news for Briere — but it is the reality.
Every NHL team is desperate for an No. 1 center, and the Flyers almost got one. But "almost" doesn't move the needle, and they're right back where they started with fewer options than they had a week ago.
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