Following its elimination from Finland in the quarterfinal of the 2026 World Junior Championship, there is an uncertain future surrounding Team USA and its prospects.
MINNEAPOLIS - With its loss to Finland in the quarterfinal, Team USA officially missed out on a dynasty. The Americans had won back-to-back gold medals at the world juniors, but this year's group was notably weaker than the teams before.
To some extent, that's not a knock on the 2026 team: The preceding squads were two of the best the U.S. has ever assembled.
The year before, the Americans were even more stacked, with Cutter Gauthier, Isaac Howard, Rutger McGroarty, Will Smith, Lane Hutson, Frank Nazar, Jimmy Snuggerud, Jacob Fowler, Augustine, Leonard and Perreault.
While this year's edition had Hagens, Eiserman, Ziemer, Hutson and Will Horcoff (PIT), the depth wasn't as strong, and there was no obvious choice in net. This came to the fore in the tournament where Team USA used all three goalies, and none could achieve a .900 save percentage, despite playing in the weaker of the two groups. I will say, however, that I do have faith in the future of Brady Knowling (2026 draft), whose only game came against the powerful Swedes.
Which brings us to an uncertain future. Because next year's Team USA will likely be weaker than the one we just saw lose in the quarterfinal. Right now, the U.S. is in a bit of a down cycle in high-end talent, which has the obvious side effect of impacting the 2027 world junior team.
To wit: From 2008-17, the Americans dominated the world under-18s, winning seven of 10 tournaments. They have won just once since then, thanks to the 2023 team led by the mentioned Smith, Leonard, Perreault, Hutson and Augustine.
The NHL draft has not been kind, either. Hagens was the only American selected in the top 20 in 2025, and multiple of the late first-rounders have late birthdays in 2006, meaning they will not be eligible for next year's world juniors.
Team USA after its defeat to Team Finland at the 2026 World Junior Championship. (Matt Krohn-Imagn Images)Horcoff and Mason West (CHI) are notable exceptions, but with the way Horcoff has played for the NCAA's University of Michigan this season, I wouldn't bet against him being in the NHL with Pittsburgh next season (he could be loaned out for the world juniors, however).
We still have a lot of hockey to be played before this season's draft, but it's not looking great for Team USA on that front, either. Defenseman Chase Reid, who played at these world juniors, looks like a top-10 pick, but there's no guarantee right now that another American goes in the first round (though I believe Knowling and USA Hockey National Team Development Program teammate Casey Mutryn would be in if the draft were held today).
And sure, you can win a gold medal at the world juniors without a ton of first-round draft picks - Finland has done it on the regular for years - but that's Finland. They're different, and we all know it.
Canada, Czechia and Sweden can return a number of important players from this year's tournament next time and will have other talents joining them.
I don't say this to kick the Americans when they're down or to be alarmist, I do it to recalibrate expectations. Team USA just had its best multi-year run at the world juniors ever, but it will be an uphill battle to get back to the top in the coming years.
Of course, we're talking about teenagers and there is certainly a scenario where a few American kids make massive leaps in their development between now and next year when the world juniors head back to Alberta. Maybe this column becomes bulletin board material instead of a harbinger. I would love to be surprised.
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