Why The Calgary Flames Could Be Much Better Than The NHL Standings Suggest

This season felt like a lost one for the Calgary Flames before it even started, and that wasn't necessarily a bad thing.

With multiple key veterans shipped off, a 2026 draft class that featured six players in the first three rounds, and a clear conscious effort from GM Craig Conroy to construct a younger roster, it felt like the only thing the Flames were concerned about was how close they could get to the top of next summer's draft.

A five-game losing streak to open up the season while being outscored 27-8 put the Flames on track to live up to the extremely low expectations that were set for them, but they've settled in ever since, and the underlying numbers suggest they could be quite underrated.

For starters, Calgary ranks 10th in the NHL in Corsi For percentage (51.18 CF%) at 5-on-5 according to Natural Stat Trick, which measures the share of shot attempts a team takes and faces.

This is typically used to quantify puck possession. If a team is above 50%, they're probably controlling more of the play in the offensive zone than their opponents are.

Additionally, the Flames rank fifth in expected goals for at 5-on-5 this season at 46.05, but are 27th in actual goals for with 28. Only the Minnesota Wild, New Jersey Devils, Utah Mammoth, and Carolina Hurricanes have generated more expected goals. 

So why is there such a huge gap? Well, there's a few reasons. One of them is bad luck.

The Flames have the second-worst team shooting percentage in the league (6.45 percent) and also have the worst high-danger shooting percentage (8.18 percent). That's just nine goals scored on 182 high-danger chances they've created this season.

While the puck just doesn't seem to be going in for them, this also underscores the Flames' lack of a true finisher. Matt Coronato has shown flashes of that potential in his career and Joel Farabee has had a fine start, but the absence of a high-end shooter has hindered this team's ability to remain competitive and convert on the chances they're working hard to create.

PDO is a stat that has also become a way to assess what hockey fans typically refer to as 'puck luck'. It's calculated by adding a team's on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage, which are difficult to replicate year-over-year and are subject to randomness.

In sum, a low PDO means a team is either scoring on fewer of its shots than normal, letting in more goals than normal, or in the Flames' case, both. Calgary ranks last in the league in this category and like all teams with a high or low PDO, regression is expected.

This is a team with the fourth-ranked power play in the league, albeit with significantly fewer opportunities than the teams ahead of them. There's something here. They just can't seem to get the results offensively at 5-on-5 that they probably deserve.

On the defensive side of things, the Flames could really use a save or two.

They rank 14th in expected goals against (41.62), but have given up the fourth-most goals against this season. Devin Cooley has been a remarkable story this season and deserves his flowers, but there could be a larger conversation around Dustin Wolf that needs to be had.

He's carrying an .869 save percentage, a 3.75 goals against average, and among goaltenders with at least 10 starts this season, Wolf ranks 31st of 33 in goals saved above expected according to MoneyPuck.

Even last year was a huge departure from what Flames fans came to expect of Wolf after a remarkable rookie campaign that saw him named as a Calder Trophy finalist, but the start of this season has been an all-time low. It's frustrating knowing that, with how well the numbers suggest they've played, they could be in a much better position with Wolf at his best.

That said, the Flames still only find themselves four points back of a playoff spot in the Pacific Division at the time of writing. The division isn't exactly a gauntlet, but it goes to show that a run of things falling their way could make for a fun final season at the Saddledome.

Ultimately, all of these fancy numbers suggest that the process is good for the Flames, and the results should follow soon. It might still be in their best interest to lose more than they win this season, but Flames fans should take comfort in the fact that, at least through the first 20 games, there's a competitive roster here that isn't worth tearing apart entirely.

See more of The Hockey News on Google and save us as a preferred source. Get the latest news and trending stories by subscribing to our newsletter here. And share your thoughts by commenting below the article on THN.com or creating your own post in our community forum.