Philadelphia’s massive offer sheet for Leo Carlsson shifted the Ducks' financial landscape, creating a high-stakes benchmark that tests Anaheim's roster flexibility and could alter the league's RFA negotiation market.
Shortly after the 2026 free agency period began, on July 3, the Philadelphia Flyers signed Anaheim Ducks RFA Leo Carlsson to a five-year, $18 million AAV offer sheet. The Ducks matched Philadelphia’s contract; Carlsson will remain Anaheim’s No.1 center, and the Flyers will retain their next four first-round picks that would have been surrendered as compensation.
By design, Carlsson’s new contract is a speed bump on Anaheim’s road toward contention, following a 2025-26 season that saw them qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2017-18.
When it was signed, this offer sheet was theorized and expected to have ripple effects throughout the NHL, with some high-profile RFAs who had seen their ELCs expire or soon would.
To this point and for the most part, Carlsson’s new deal hasn’t seemed to have impacted negotiations with the majority of current RFAs. Second or third-tier RFAs like Peyton Krebs (4 years, $4.5 million AAV), Cole Perfetti (5 years, $6 million AAV), Trevor Zegras (4 years, $9.125 million AAV), Connor McMichael (6 years, $6.75 million AAV), and Jamie Drysdale (4 years, $6.5 million AAV) all signed relatively market-value deals since July 3, taking the ever-rising cap into consideration.
Before signing the offer sheet with Philadelphia, Carlsson’s representation revealed that their focus was on seeing what the Chicago Blackhawks’ contract with Connor Bedard (1st overall in 2023) looked like and intended to use that number as a negotiating point for Carlsson (2nd in ’23). On Saturday, with Carlsson already inked, Bedard signed a five-year, $15 million AAV contract with Chicago.
NHL premier insider Elliotte Friedman reported that after receiving the offer sheet, but before signing, Carlsson’s ask from the Ducks was that same $15 million AAV (presumably over eight years) number. Bedard entered the league with a greater pedigree than Carlsson, and through their first three years in the league together, Bedard has outproduced him on a points-per-game basis .93 to .70.
An offer sheet like Carlsson’s will always yield a higher number than a typical one-team negotiation like Bedard’s. It remains unclear if Carlsson’s five-year term impacted Bedard’s, but negotiations are seemingly trending in that direction league-wide.
After signing and per “The Athletic”, Bedard’s agent, Don Meehan, relayed that Carlsson’s offer sheet “didn’t change anything for him.” It’s unknown if Bedard received an offer sheet or if teams expressed interest in tendering him one. However, Meehan took the opportunity to seemingly throw a verbal jab at Carlsson and the Ducks, while (understandably) bolstering his client’s resolve in his organization.
“Connor made it clear even after the (Carlsson) offer sheet — and before the offer sheet — that he had no intention of signing an offer sheet, that he was happy in Chicago, believed in the organization, believed in his teammates, and was quite content and happy to stay exactly where he was in Chicago,” he told “The Athletic.”
Carlsson’s offer sheet may not have yet impacted the AAV of current RFAs, but with several more high-profile post-ELC contracts expiring on the horizon, it may yet. Adam Fantilli (3rd in ’23) remains unsigned this summer, Macklin Celebrini (1st in ’24) will be an RFA in 2027, and Matthew Schaefer (1st in ’25) will be one in 2028.
The Ducks, themselves, felt the immediate repercussions, as they seemingly had their hand forced into signing RFA Pavel Mintyukov (22) to a five-year, $7.2 million AAV in an effort to avoid the threat of an offer sheet. The Ducks were reportedly at the point in their negotiations where their number for Mintyukov was in the range of a three-year, $3-plus million AAV. If that were the case, they bent significantly to get their young defenseman under contract as quickly as possible.
With a bar set by Mintyukov, the Calgary Flames signed their own RFA defenseman Simon Nemec to a similar five-year, $7.25 million AAV deal. Nemec (2nd in ’22) was selected eight spots ahead of Mintyukov (10th in ’22) in the 2022 NHL Draft.
One could argue that the dominoes of Carlsson’s deal have begun to fall on a league-wide scale. One can not argue that they’ve already begun falling within the Ducks’ cap structure, and they have no signs of slowing.
William Liang-Imagn ImagesThe Ducks had a relatively clean projected salary cap situation heading into the 2025-26 season. Jackson LaCombe’s $9 million AAV contract had yet to kick in, big-money contracts would be coming off their books within three subsequent seasons, and if more high-profile RFAs could sign similar contracts to LaCombe, the Ducks would be able to add a key missing piece or two who could carry them over the top and into true contention.
The former two items remain intact. LaCombe’s contract will begin in 2026-27 and looks like it could become a bargain in short order. Radko Gudas, Jacob Trouba, and John Carlsson all came off the books in the summer of 2026. Contracts like Chris Kreider’s ($6.5 million AAV) and Alex Killorn's ($6.25 million) will come off in 2027. Mikael Granlund’s ($7 million AAV) and Frank Vatrano's ($4.57 million AAV) are scheduled to come off in 2028.
Anaheim’s leading scorer in 2025-26, Cutter Gauthier, remains unsigned as a current RFA and is coming off his ELC. His number will be immensely telling and vital when projecting the long-term outlook of the Ducks’ cap sheet.
After Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke (20) is seemingly the final remaining core piece the Ducks will likely be spending a significant AAV on. He will be an RFA in the summer of 2028, where (before Gauthier’s extension) the Ducks have a projected $65.4 million in cap space.
At whatever numbers that Gauthier and Sennecke eventually sign for, Carlsson’s contract will likely be sourced as a barometer and cited in negotiations for Ducks players in the future. Moving forward, this will likely lead to the Ducks having to commit fully to their current core and deploy a top-heavy depth chart over the next few seasons.
Their ability to acquire expensive difference-makers will be limited, and the front office will have to adjust to a reliance on prospects becoming impact players and succeeding with gambles on the fringes of the roster.
Since this front office took over in Anaheim, they’ve yet to develop young second and third-tier prospects into everyday players. The Ducks have an extensive list of prospects within the organization who have the potential to become impact middle-of-the-lineup players like Roger McQueen, Nikita Klepov, Marcus Nordmark, Lucas Pettersson, Maxim Masse, Nathan Gaucher, Anton Wahlberg, Nico Myatovic, Eric Nilson, Mathis Preston, Stian Solberg, Noah Warren, Jayden Kurtz, Lasse Boelius, and several more. They’ll now be more reliant on a higher percentage of that group nearing, reaching, or exceeding their potential.
The Ducks’ front office will also have to be more selective with the money they hand out as it pertains to the depth of the roster and uncover a higher number of diamonds in the rough who have yet to break out. Their professional scouting staff has done well targeting pieces like Ryan Poehling, Ville Husso, and Jeffrey Viel. They’ll need to increase that hit rate and sign those players to reasonable deals early.
The Ducks’ new cap sheet will prove difficult waters for general manager Pat Verbeek and the front office to navigate. In a vacuum, paying Carlsson $3 million AAV more than Bedard shouldn’t devastate a franchise’s build toward contention. However, the ramifications have already cost the Ducks $3 million AAV more with Mintyukov’s contract (author’s speculation and estimation), and could very well cost them considerably more with Gauthier and Sennecke’s.
These aren’t impossible obstacles to traverse, but the Ducks’ front office, from the top down, will now have to utilize every ounce of their talent to ice a sustainable Stanley Cup contender and achieve their goal of bringing another championship to Anaheim.
