A dive into the underlying numbers from Detroit's 5-2 victory over the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday night
A dive into the underlying numbers from Detroit's 5-2 victory over the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday night
On Saturday night at Little Caesars Arena, the Detroit Red Wings earned a 5-2 victory over the reigning Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights. It was a win characteristic of Detroit's successful month of January—not overwhelming, but rather defensive and reliant on sound goaltending and decisive finishing. For a closer look at how the Red Wings pulled that off, let's take a dive into the underlying numbers from the win.
The Big Picture
-By expected goals (as calculated by MoneyPuck.com), the Red Wings edged Vegas 2.79-2.78, but that figure is a bit misleading, considering that roughly 0.5 xG's worth of Detroit's total comes from Dylan Larkin's empty net goal that clinched the game.
-At five-on-five, this was a relatively balanced game, with the Red Wings taking a slight edge in shot volume and Vegas in quality. Per Natural Stat Trick, Detroit earned a 53.09% CorsiFor, a 48.65% share of scoring chances, a 45.0% share of high-danger chances, and a 44.43% share of expected goals. As the below heat map indicates, this was a night in which both sides were able to create a meaningful helping of quality offense from the inner slot.
-Underlying numbers along those lines are generally in line with the Red Wings' pattern of success throughout January. They haven't achieved a 9-2-1 record by overwhelming opponents with possession, scoring chances, and quality offense. Instead, success for Detroit has looked more like keeping games both close and low scoring, while relying on goaltending and finishing to push the team over the top.
There's a fundamental instability there, because it is a game that relies on thin margins, and yet, the reliability of the Red Wings' scoring touch and goaltending (specifically, Alex Lyon) in the month of January has made that formula work for more than just a short burst.
Much has been made this season about Detroit's shooting percentage.
This conversation began in October, when the Red Wings jumped out to a 6-3-1 start, surprising pundits not just by winning but with their offensive firepower. Detroit scored 4.0 goals a game in October on the strength of a 12.9% shooting percentage. This month, the Red Wings are scoring 3.42 goals-per-game, but they're doing it on a roughly equivalent 13.1% shooting percentage.
League average for the current season is 9.7%, so there can be no denying that Detroit is benefitting from above-average finishing touch, but it's also important to note that the Red Wings were also doing that in December, when they were struggling.
For the month of December, Detroit shot 11.3%, not quite to the heights of January or October but still comfortably above league average. In December, the Red Wings scored 3.33 goals-per-game, not at all far behind this month's output.
So, yes, Detroit is currently enjoying a hot spell of shooting luck, but what really separates this current month from last (or even from October's strong start) is happening at the other end of the rink.
In October, the Red Wings gave up 3.10 goals against-per-game, with the team putting up a .901 save percentage (crucially, this was before Lyon made his debut). In December, Detroit surrendered 4.27 goals-per-game on .875 goaltending. This month, the Red Wings are giving up just 2.5 goals-a-night on exemplary .926 goaltending.
None of this is to suggest that Detroit is bound to keep up this month's form for the rest of the season and cruise into the playoffs. Instead, the key takeaways are that (1) defense and goaltending are a prerequisite for success and (2) though the Red Wings are shooting at clip meaningfully above league average, they have by this point a solid track record of doing just that.
In other words, while some measure of regression is inevitable over the course of what remains of the season, Detroit is settling into a pattern of play with which it can find success, and that pattern—if a bit precarious—is one that the Red Wings have demonstrated they can replicate over prolonged periods.
Individual Impacts
-To begin at the back with Lyon, it was another strong showing—28 saves on 30 shots. Lyon faced 2.78 xG and gave up two goals for a Goals Saved Above Expected of 0.78.
Those are strong figures to be sure, but they get better when you pay particular attention to the work Lyon did to close out this win. He conceded twice in the first period on just 0.862 xG, far from an ideal start. However, he was excellent over the final 40 minutes of the night, turning aside all 1.918 xG that came his way to see out the victory.
-As it has been throughout the month, the third line of Michael Rasmussen, Andrew Copp, and Christian Fischer was an essential driver for Detroit. They played 13:04 together at five-on-five (tops among Red Wing lines), earning a 51.9% share of on-ice xG and outscoring Vegas 1-0 in the process, with Copp delivering an essential third period insurance goal.
That trio also took on the most difficult matchup of the night after the first period, going head-to-head with the Knights' top trio of Paul Cotter, Chandler Stephenson, and Mark Stone for most of the game's final 40 minutes.
-The top line of Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, and Lucas Raymond did commendable work in driving offense, but they couldn't quite match the 200-foot command of play they showed together in last Thursday's win over the Flyers. That trio played 12:48 at five-on-five, earning a 47.8% share of on-ice xG and playing to a 1-1 draw in those minutes.
-Jeff Petry-Olli Maatta was the sole regular Detroit defense pair to come out ahead on xG share. They earned an exemplary 72.4% share of on-ice xG in 15:37 together. However, they played to the same score in those minutes (1-1) as did Jake Walman and Moritz Seider, who managed just a 29.7% share of on-ice xG in their 14:44 together at five-a-side.
An obvious bit of context here is that Walman-Seider drew the more difficult matchup with the Stephenson line, while Petry and Maatta played primarily against Vegas' second line of Nicolas Roy, Ivan Barbashev, and Jonathan Marchessault. That's not an easy night either, but it is the same workload that Walman and Seider had to deal with.
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