Oftentimes, where there's smoke, there's fire. But, when it comes to trade chatter surrounding defenseman Darnell Nurse, it looks like most of that smoke is just our fire alarms going off because they need a new battery. 

Yes, trade talk swirling around the Edmonton Oilers right now -- a team that added three new players and moved out one this week. And with speculation another move could be coming, some are wondering if the big swing includes moving Nurse and his $9.25 million salary. 

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Edmonton has been active on the trade front this week. The reason is their lack of solid defensive play, where Nurse has been among the most guilty of making mistakes. His pairing with Jake Walman has been a disaster on most nights, and Nurse's on-ice struggles have led to around 20 points (7G-13A) in 61 games with a -12 rating. For a player making his money, the Oilers need more. 

He's been criticized for defensive lapses, giving away chances, and not living up to expectations as a top-pairing guy. He's publicly admitted he's "not happy about [his] play at all" and needs to "step up for sure," but others have been critical of what they perceive as a lack of accountability. 

His eight-year, $74M extension (signed in 2021) carries a massive $9.25M AAV through 2029-30. Labeled by some as an albatross that's crippling Edmonton's cap flexibility moving on from that deal as the window for the Oilers to chase a Stanley Cup sounds plausible. 

Insiders like Jeff Marek (The Sheet) have floated Edmonton as a team to watch at the deadline, openly wondering if they'd "do something with Darnell Nurse" for a blockbuster move. Elliotte Friedman noted last summer the Oilers asked NTC/NMC players (including Nurse) about waiving for trades—Nurse declined.

Trade speculation has ramped up again now.

Don't expect Nurse to be traded. His full no-movement clause means he has all the say here, and it remains the biggest hurdle because any deal requires Nurse's approval. His wife just gave birth to their third child, so expecting Nurse to voluntarily jump at the chance to start fresh somewhere else makes upheaval unlikely right now. And, despite the critical bashing he often takes from fans, he's well-liked in the room, tied to the core, and has shown no desire to leave.

But what if he did want to leave? It's not that simple. The cap hit would likely mean Edmonton would need to retain salary (maybe 35-50%) and attach assets to sweeten the deal. As high a ceiling as Nurse has, few teams want that long-term commitment for a player who's inconsistent defensively.

At this point, any talk from analysts and fans is speculative. That includes Marek, who admittedly is just throwing out suggestions and not saying anything is imminent. His comments make for good fodder and drive traffic, but they're not based on fact. Moving Nurse is not a priority for the Oilers. And, with only 28 hours left to make moves, a Nurse deal involves several moving parts. 

The rumors are out there due to his performance and very real contract issues, but a trade this week feels highly improbable. If anything happens, it'd be a massive shock.

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