With the 2026-27 NHL season boasting an impressive class of rookies, Tony Ferrari gives his predictions on how many points some of the top first-year players will finish with at the end of the year.
Projecting rookie point totals is one of the most difficult things to do every off-season in the NHL.
Some players are able to jump right into the league and lean on their scoring habits to cover up the rookie mistakes they will inevitably make, while others are so focused on not making those mistakes that they don’t play to their full potential offensively.
With an exciting rookie class coming into the NHL this year, there will be plenty of attention on the freshmen. NHL.com’s fantasy team put out projections for the top skaters around the league, including many of the first-year players.
Let’s take a look at some of the rookie projections and predict whether the player will be over or under that mark in their first year in the NHL.
Gavin McKenna, Left Wing, Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL.com Point Projection: 63
The Toronto Maple Leafs' top pick in the 2026 NHL Draft will be stepping into a great situation. The assumption is that he will be playing top-six minutes and if all goes as expected, McKenna will be skating alongside Auston Matthews, one of the most gifted goal-scorers of this generation.
That should fit perfectly with McKenna’s silky playmaking and overall offensive game. One of the big discussion points as before entering the league was the need for him to be in a strong environment early in his career, and he's got that nailed down.
63 is a massive point total for any rookie, but McKenna is going to be in the unique situation where he possesses the talent to do it and the team is going to be putting him in position to play with high-end players immediately.
Prediction: Over
Porter Martone, Right Wing, Philadelphia Flyers
NHL.com Point Projection: 68
As we head into the season, Porter Martone is standing atop nearly every sportsbook as the Calder Trophy favorite. He was excellent in his brief debut at the NHL level late last season, putting up 10 points in nine games before adding five in 10 post-season appearances. The expectations are through the roof for Martone.
He is projected as one of the Philadelphia Flyers' top scorers next season, which is a lot to put on his shoulders. 68 points would put him ahead of Connor Bedard (61), Ivan Demidov (62), and Macklin Celebrini (63) among recent high-end rookies to come into the league, which would be tough to beat.
Prediction: Under
Ivar Stenberg, Left Wing/Right Wing, San Jose Sharks
NHL.com Point Projection: 56
The second-overall pick in June is poised to jump into a San Jose Sharks lineup that will feature one of the best collections of young talent in the league.
Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, Igor Chenyshov and Michael Misa headline the group of impressive young forwards that Ivar Stenberg is joining. Stenberg is likely going to slot in right behind Celebrini when they are all in their primes but as a rookie, it’s going to be an adjustment.
Thankfully for Stenberg, he’s already spent time playing pro hockey in Sweden and he looked fantastic doing so. Stenberg was not only one of the most prolific scorers for a draft eligible in SHL history but he was a steady and reliable two-way presence as well.
His projection of 56 points seems right about where he’ll end up. If he plays with Celebrini, he could end up slightly higher, if he plays on the third line, he could end up lower. In all likelihood, he does both throughout the year and ends up right around 56.
Prediction: Under
Jame Hagens, Center/Wing, Boston Bruins
NHL.com Point Projection: 41
James Hagens is a sneaky candidate to go over his point projection of 41. Assuming he plays in the vast majority of the Boston Bruins 82 games, he’s exactly the kind of player that exceeds his projection and finds his way into the 50s or even the low 60s.
His speed and skill are impressive, he’s added more juice as a goal-scorer and his playmaking continues to be his bread and butter.
For Hagens, a lot if going to depend on the leash he’s given by the coaching staff and the role that they give him early on. If he’s able to play with the Bruins' more skilled players higher up in the lineup, he could easily outscore this total by 20 points. He certainly has the talent to do it.
Prediction: Over
Anton Frondell, Center/Wing, Chicago Blackhawks
NHL.com Point Projection: 62
The Chicago Blackhawks are poised to take a step this year as they integrate their younger players into bigger roles, and a key part of that is going to be Anton Frondell.
The Swedish forward looked great in his quick stint at the end of the season, putting up nine points in a dozen games with some really strong moments that made him look ready for the spotlight.
Although, 62 points feels right on the edge of too much for him as a rookie. There will inevitably be some slow moments from him throughout the season, especially with no Connor Bedard to start the year.
That could push Frondell into a top-line center role early on, which could be both an excellent opportunity and too much, too soon. 62 points is attainable but potentially a bit aggressive early on.
Prediction: Under
Roman Kantserov, Right Wing, Chicago Blackhawks
NHL.com Point Projection: 45
After a few impressive seasons at the KHL level, Roman Kantserov is coming to North America for the upcoming season, where he is poised to play a scoring role for the Blackhawks as a rookie.
Kantserov is undersized but his skill, pace, and ability to generate offense for himself and his teammates is impressive. He’s a top-six scorer and the Blackhawks need that skillset so it’s a match made in heaven.
He should be given ample opportunity to play alongside the likes of Frondell, Frank Nazar, and/or Bedard when he is healthy. That should give him the opportunity to put up some really solid numbers. If things go well, half a point per game feels like a disappointment.
Prediction: Over
Konsta Helenius, Center/Wing, Buffalo Sabres
NHL.com Point Projection: 49
When Konsta Helenius got into the lineup for the Buffalo Sabres last year, he showed that he belonged in the NHL lineup regularly. The Sabres were having a great season and didn’t seem eager to mess with a good thing, so Helenius routinely ended up being the odd man out.
The young Finnish center was consistent in showcasing his two-way game and often flashed more skill than expected.
Heading into next season, Helenius is going to have a role in the NHL lineup but it might not be a big one. If he were to play top-six minutes ahead of Josh Norris or Jiri Kulich, he could reach the 50-point threshold.
Helenius isn’t a high-impact offensive player on most nights, but he’s certainly capable of it when he’s put in the position to be. That just might not be this season.
Prediction: Under
Victor Eklund, Right Wing, New York Islanders
NHL.com Point Projection: 51
So much of Victor Eklund’s projection relies on whether or not he gets the opportunity to do what he is capable of. The New York Islanders aren’t a team with a ton of offensive firepower so inserting a player like Eklund could be a game-changer for them.
For the Eklund to reach the 50-point mark and the Islanders to have their top prospect reach his full potential as a rookie, they need to put him in a position to succeed.
Playing alongside Bo Horvat or Matthew Barzal would be excellent fits for Eklund. Playing with a guy like Jean-Gabriel Pageau might not bring his full offensive toolkit to the table, even if Pageau is a solid NHL bottom-six player.
Prediction: Under
Carter Yakemchuk, Defenseman, Ottawa Senators
NHL.com Point Projection: 30
Only two rookie defenders in the NHL last year hit the 30-point mark: Matthew Schaefer and Alexander Nikishin. The former won the Calder Trophy and asserted himself as one of the best defenders in the league, while the latter helped the Carolina Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup.
30 points doesn’t seem like a high bar on the surface but it’s not common for rookie blueliners to meet it.
Carter Yakemchuk should make the Ottawa Senators roster as they enter a new phase and his shot is certainly going to be an asset on the power play. His game overall still seems to have quite a bit of ironing out to reach it potential.
My question going into the season is how much 5-on-5 production he is capable of considering the fact that he’s got holes elsewhere. If the Sens can find a way to shelter him he could reach 30 ,but I think he comes up just shy.
Prediction: Under
Cole Hutson, Defenseman, Washington Capitals
NHL.com Point Projection: 51
As much as we want to compare the Hutson brothers, they are not the same and they aren’t playing in the same environment. The Washington Capitals are going to put Cole Hutson in plenty of really good spots so he is going to get the opportunities.
The issue is the same as with Yakemchuk though. Putting up over 30 points is incredibly impressive. 51 feels like a stretch.
Matthew Schaefer was considered an all-world defender last year and only put up 59 points. Moritz Seider, the 2022 Calder Trophy winner, put up 50 points that year. Even Lane Hutson, considered one of the most dynamic and impressive offensive blueliners to come into the league, had 66 points.
If Cole is anywhere close to his brother, it’s going to be an impressive season.
Prediction: Under
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