Flyers Or Islanders: Which Surprise Team Is More Likely To Make The Playoffs?

As the NHL moves toward the midway point of the 2025-26 regular season, two teams in particular have been major surprises, and both of them are in a top-three position in the Metropolitan Division.

That would be the New York Islanders and the Philadelphia Flyers, who are second and third in the Metro, respectively. The Flyers finished last place in the Eastern Conference last year with a 33-39-10 record, while the Islanders finished in 12th place in the conference with a 35-35-12 mark.

Thus, very few pundits had the Isles and Flyers as a playoff team in pre-season predictions this year. Yet, here we are, as the Flyers have a 21-12-7 record, and in 41 games, the Islanders have a 23-15-4 mark. In fact, both clubs are coming off victories on Saturday night.

But this surprising success leads to a concern. With the New Jersey Devils expected to make a second-half playoff push, and with the Washington Capitals currently occupying the first wild card position in the East, there's a strong possibility that one of the Isles or Flyers is going to falter and miss out on a playoff spot this season.

So, which one of those two teams is more likely to sew up a post-season position?

This may ultimately fall into the hunch category, but from this writer’s perspective, the answer to that question is the Flyers. 

To be sure, between the Islanders’ goaltending and the Flyers’ netminders, the Isles take it 10 times out of 10. Star goalie Ilya Sorokin is thriving with a .910 save percentage and a 2.55 goals-against average. Also, backup David Rittich is providing solid support, posting a .907 SP and 2.48 GAA. The Islanders have the backbone you need to stay in the playoff hunt. 

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That said, Philadelphia has had a terrific season out of first-year Flyers goalie Dan Vladar. He's recorded a .910 SP and 2.39 GAA as the Flyers inked him to a two-year contract at $3.35 million per season.

So, the advantage the Isles have over the Flyers in the goaltending department isn’t so great that it’s going to make the Islanders a shoo-in to be a playoff team. And remember, even with Sorokin patrolling the pipes last season, the Isles weren’t good enough to get into the playoffs. So it’s not all about netminding when we’re choosing between Philly and Long Island.

The Isles are indeed the slightly better defensive team than the Flyers, with the Islanders posting a 2.76 goals-against average, and Philadelphia posting a 2.83 goals-against average. It’s also true that the Flyers are the better team on offense, putting up a 2.98 goals-for average compared to the Isles’ 2.76 goals-for average.

In addition, there’s basically no difference between the Flyers and Islanders when it comes to their special teams.

The Isles have a 15.9 percent power play and an 81.4 percent penalty kill, while the Flyers have a 15.6 percent power play and an 81.3 percent penalty kill. Thus, there’s a pretty equal balance overall between these franchises. 

If statistics are so close, why are we picking the Flyers over the Islanders as a playoff team this season? Well, for a couple of reasons in particular.

The first is that the Flyers are being coached by a Jack Adams Award candidate in Rick Tocchet, and he’s got his Philadelphia team believing in itself.

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This isn’t to say that Isles bench boss Patrick Roy is doing a poor job, but with the Flyers facing lesser expectations, Tocchet has got his team playing free and easy, and that will help them deal with the pressure just a little bit easier than the Islanders will.

As it stands, we see the Flyers’ depth as being that much better than the Isles’ depth.

Philadelphia newcomers Trevor Zegras and Christian Dvorak have worked out as well as could be hoped for. And although the Islanders have a true generational talent in rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer, the Flyers have the best young forward of the two teams in 21-year-old Matvei Michkov. For that reason, we like Philadelphia’s overall depth more than the Isles’.

Ultimately, not much separates these two teams. However, the Flyers have shown in the first half of the season that they’ve got enough talent to keep them in the playoff race the rest of the way this year.

Again, it probably comes down to a hunch to pick the Flyers over the Islanders as a playoff team in the Metro. But if it does come to pass that the Flyers outlast the Isles in locking up a post-season spot, you can no longer say that nobody saw it coming. 

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